有色金属月度策略-20260106

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday, non-ferrous metals generally rose, with copper, aluminum, and aluminum alloys showing strength, while zinc, tin, etc. followed the upward trend, and nickel and lead were consolidating. The macro environment is positive, and the supply side of non-ferrous metals is strongly supported. Valuation-lagging varieties also showed a rotational recovery in the strong sector. The report suggests paying attention to whether there will be fluctuations and differentiation due to fundamental differences after the positive start. [12][13] - The report provides specific operation suggestions and market outlooks for various non-ferrous metal varieties, including copper, zinc, aluminum, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel. [14][15][16] Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Non-ferrous Metal Operation Logic and Investment Recommendations - Macro Logic: The non-ferrous metal sector had a positive start after the holiday, and it is expected that in 2026, factors such as a relatively loose monetary environment, the development direction of AI technology, increased attention to the critical mineral supply chain, and the rise of resource nationalism in resource-rich countries will continue to support non-ferrous metals. China's December official manufacturing PMI and non-manufacturing PMI both returned to the expansion range, and the US economic data also showed certain positive signs. [12] - Operation Suggestions for Each Variety: - Copper: Try to gradually buy on dips. The short-term upper pressure range is around 105,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is around 95,000 - 96,000 yuan/ton. Consider buying deep out-of-the-money long-term call options. [3][14] - Zinc: It is expected to continue the relatively strong consolidation pattern. The upper pressure is around 23,800 - 24,000, and the short-term lower support is around 22,800 - 23,000. Hold long positions and wait and see. [4][15] - Aluminum Industry Chain: - Aluminum: Temporarily wait and see to prevent a callback after a short-term over - rise. The upper pressure range is 24,000 - 24,500, and the lower support range is 22,000 - 22,300. Buy out-of-the-money put options for protection. - Alumina: Sell on rallies. The upper pressure range is 2,800 - 3,000, and the lower support range is 2,000 - 2,200. Buy out-of-the-money call options for protection. - Recycled Aluminum Alloy: Temporarily wait and see. The upper pressure range is 23,000 - 23,500, and the lower support range is 21,000 - 21,500. Buy out-of-the-money put options for protection. [5][15] - Tin: Adopt a bullish mindset. Pay attention to the influence of other non-ferrous metal varieties, as well as the situation of the ore end and policy regulation. The upper pressure range is 350,000 - 355,000, and the lower support range is 310,000 - 320,000. Consider buying out-of-the-money put options for protection. [6][7][15] - Lead: It is expected to continue the consolidation pattern after the holiday. The short-term lower support is around 16,700 - 16,800, and the upper resistance is around 17,500 - 17,700. Consider the double - selling strategy. [8][16] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: - Nickel: It may continue the relatively strong fluctuation after the holiday. The upper resistance is around 135,000 - 136,000 yuan, and the lower support is around 126,000 - 128,000 yuan. Buy on dips. - Stainless Steel: It is currently consolidating. The lower support is around 12,800 - 13,000, and the upper resistance is around 13,400 - 13,600. Wait and see until the Indonesian policy becomes clear. [9][16] Second Part: Non-ferrous Metal Market Review - The closing prices and price changes of various non-ferrous metal futures are provided, including copper, zinc, aluminum, aluminum oxide, tin, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy. For example, the closing price of copper futures was 101,350, with a price increase of 3.17%. [17][18] Third Part: Non-ferrous Metal Position Analysis - The latest position analysis of the non-ferrous metal sector is presented, including the price change, net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position difference, changes in net long and net short positions, influencing factors, and the sector for each variety. For example, for Shanghai Nickel (NI2602), the price change was 2.44%, with a strong short position by the main force, a net long - short position difference of - 19,690, an increase of 568 in net long positions, a decrease of 2,947 in net short positions, and the influencing factor was the reduction of short positions by the main force. [20] Fourth Part: Non-ferrous Metal Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of various non-ferrous metals are provided, including copper, zinc, aluminum, aluminum oxide, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy. For example, the Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price was 100,750 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.33%. [22] Fifth Part: Non-ferrous Metal Industry Chain - Various industry chain - related charts are presented for different non-ferrous metal varieties, such as the exchange copper inventory change, LME copper inventory, copper concentrate smelting fee, zinc inventory change, zinc concentrate processing fee change, etc. [24][26][28] Sixth Part: Non-ferrous Metal Arbitrage - Arbitrage - related charts for different non-ferrous metal varieties are provided, such as the copper Shanghai - London ratio change, Shanghai copper and London copper basis, zinc Shanghai - London ratio change, etc. [58][60] Seventh Part: Non-ferrous Metal Options - Option - related charts for different non-ferrous metal varieties are provided, such as the historical volatility of copper options, the weighted implied volatility of copper options, the historical volatility of zinc options, etc. [78][81]