Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for specific products, the ratings are as follows: - White sugar: Oscillating [1] - Red dates: Weak and oscillating [4] - Rubber series: Natural rubber oscillating and strengthening, synthetic rubber oscillating and strengthening [5] Core Views - The global sugar market is facing supply pressure in the medium to long term due to increased sugar production in India and the expected high - yield season in Brazil. The domestic sugar market may oscillate at a low level, mainly influenced by the external market and domestic sugar association data [1]. - The inventory of red dates is in the seasonal destocking period, but the total inventory is still at a historical high. The market is turning its attention to demand, but there are still insufficient positive factors in the medium to long term, and the futures price is expected to oscillate in the low - level range [4]. - For natural rubber, the cost is supported by the firm overseas raw material prices, but the slow de - stocking of finished products and the increase in inventory in Qingdao suppress the bullish sentiment. For synthetic rubber, the price of butadiene drives the price of cis - butadiene rubber up [5]. Summary by Product White Sugar - Market Quotes: On the previous day, the closing price of SR605 contract was 525 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.11%, and the night - session closing price was 5248 yuan/ton; the closing price of SR609 contract was 5269 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.06, and the night - session closing price was 5260 yuan/ton [1]. - Important Information: The spot price of white sugar in Guangxi increased by 2 yuan/ton to 5282 yuan/ton; the quotation range of Guangxi sugar - making groups decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton to 5280 - 5360 yuan/ton; the quotation of Yunnan sugar - making groups decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 5110 - 5200 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation range of processing sugar factories decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 5750 - 5900 yuan/ton. As of December 31, 2025, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season reached 11.897 million tons, a nearly 25% increase from the same period last year. As of January 1, 2026, 195 sugar factories in Maharashtra, India, had started crushing, with a sugar production of 4920000 tons and an average sugar yield of 8.75%. As of December 29, 2025, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume decreased by 19.27% year - on - year, and sugar production decreased by 18.83% year - on - year. The number of white sugar warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange increased by 823 to 6005 [1]. - Market Logic: The external market is worried about the long - term supply pressure of international sugar sources. The overall fundamentals of the domestic and foreign sugar markets are still bearish, except for the unexpected decrease in Thailand's new - season sugar production. The domestic market has resistance to decline at low levels, and the spot trading is relatively dull, but the inquiring enthusiasm has increased. The short - term trend mainly depends on the external market and domestic sugar association data [1]. - Trading Strategy: Hold and wait for the short position of SR605 contract [1]. Red Dates - Market Quotes: On the previous day, the closing price of CJ605 contract was 8965 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.61%; the closing price of CJ605 contract was 9205 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.27% [4]. - Important Information: The physical inventory of 36 sample points decreased by 210 tons week - on - week to 15898 tons. The wholesale price of special - grade red dates in Hebei decreased by 0.06 yuan/kg to 9.46 yuan/kg. The number of arriving vehicles at the Guangdong Ruyifang market decreased by 1 vehicle to 7 vehicles. The number of red date warehouse receipts decreased by 18 to 2102 [4]. - Market Logic: The inventory of red dates is in the seasonal destocking period, but the total inventory is still at a historical high. After the supply negative factors are gradually digested, the market focuses on demand. The futures price has support near the previous low, but there are insufficient positive factors in the medium to long term, and it is difficult to have a large - scale rebound [4]. - Trading Strategy: Hold the short position of CJ605 contract [4]. Rubber Series - Market Quotes: As of January 5, the closing price of RU2605 contract was 15790 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.19%; the closing price of NR2602 contract was 12805 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.19%; the closing price of BR2602 contract was 11645 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.09% [5]. - Important Information: The price of raw material glue in Thailand was 54.7 Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup rubber was 51.3 Thai baht/kg. The price of Hainan glue for making whole milk and concentrated latex was 15000 yuan/ton. As of January 4, 2026, the general trade inventory of natural rubber samples in Qingdao increased by 1.69 million tons to 46.03 million tons, with an increase of 3.80%. The total inventory of bonded and general trade in Qingdao increased by 2.35 million tons to 54.83 million tons, with an increase of 4.48%. The price of whole milk latex was 15500 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1.64%; the price of 20 - grade Thai standard rubber was 1890 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 0.8%, equivalent to 13273 yuan/ton in RMB; the price of 20 - grade Thai mixed rubber was 14850 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1.02%. The price difference between RU and NR main contracts widened by 5 yuan/ton to 2985 yuan/ton; the price difference between mixed standard rubber and RU main contract widened by 35 yuan/ton to - 940 yuan/ton. The price of butadiene in Shandong increased, and the market prices of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber also rose [5]. - Market Logic: For natural rubber, the cost is supported by the firm overseas raw material prices, but the slow de - stocking of finished products and the increase in inventory in Qingdao suppress the bullish sentiment. For synthetic rubber, the price of butadiene drives the price of cis - butadiene rubber up [5]. - Trading Strategy: For RU, focus on the activity range of 15550 - 16000; for NR, focus on the activity range of 12600 - 13150; for BR, focus on the pressure level performance at 12000 [5].
格林大华早盘提示：白糖，红枣，橡胶系-20260106
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2026-01-06 05:25