新世纪期货集运日报-20260106

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - SCFIS continues to rise, spot freight rates maintain an upward trend, and the market shows a strong and volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to the freight rate trend in February [2]. - The core factor is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [4]. - After the holiday, the freight rates of liner companies have increased slightly, supporting the market to some extent, but there are differences in the subsequent increase. The overall market is strongly volatile. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Freight Rate Index - On January 5, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1795.83 points, up 3.1% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1250.12 points, down 3.9% from the previous period [3]. - On January 2, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1296.7 points, up 10.40% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1258.31 points, up 9.96% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1743.56 points, up 38.94% from the previous period [3]. - On December 26, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) (composite index) was 1656.32 points, up 103.4 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1690 USD/TEU, up 10.24% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 2188 USD/FEU, up 9.84% from the previous period [3]. - On December 26, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1124.73 points, up 0.6% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1473.90 points, up 0.2% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 792.06 points, down 0.9% from the previous period [3]. Economic Data - The eurozone's December composite PMI preliminary value was 51.9, expected to be 52.6, and the previous value was 52.8. The service - sector PMI preliminary value was 52.6, lower than the market expectation of 53.3 [3]. - The eurozone's December Sentix investor confidence index was - 6.2, expected to be - 7, and the previous value was - 7.4 [3]. - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. In October, the composite PMI output index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - The US December S&P Global service - sector PMI preliminary value was 52.9, a six - month low, expected to be 54, and the previous value was 54.1. The US December S&P Global composite PMI preliminary value was 53, expected to be 53.9, and the previous value was 54.2 [4]. Market Situation - The US attack on Venezuela has made the international situation tense again, but the expected impact is limited. The US route is facing heavy snow at the end of the year, and the European route is affected by seasonal congestion, both showing different degrees of increase. However, major shipping companies have signaled resuming routes in the Red Sea. The premium space caused by weather and congestion is limited [4]. - On January 5, the main contract 2602 closed at 1855.5, up 1.48%. The trading volume was 22,900 lots, and the open interest was 26,000 lots, an increase of 1916 lots from the previous day [4]. Strategy Suggestions - Short - term strategy: The main contract has reached a new high. It is recommended to take full profits and wait and see. Do not recommend additional positions [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts reach high levels, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [5]. Contract Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. - The intraday opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5].