Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the document. Core Views of the Report - China's service industry activities maintained expansion in December 2025, but new export orders re - entered the contraction zone. Enterprises' optimism about the business outlook for the next year improved to the highest in 9 months [7][28]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to rise due to concerns about supply contraction and positive demand expectations. The demand side is supported by policies and better - than - expected demand in the traditional off - season, while the supply side is affected by potential supply tightening policies [8]. - It is not advisable to short caustic soda. Although the short - term decline due to delivery factors is limited, the spot market still faces challenges such as low - price warehouse receipts, and obvious rebounds are difficult without production cuts [10][92]. - In the short term, butadiene and butadiene rubber may run strongly, but the upside space is gradually narrowing. The cost of synthetic rubber is pushed up by butadiene, and the apparent demand for butadiene rubber remains high [13]. - Aluminum prices may continue to rise. Although the spot market is weak, the basis may be repaired, and there is potential for upward movement in the first quarter, especially if there is a spring rally in the equity market [14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded. The prices of domestic and foreign gold futures and spot have shown different trends, and the trading volume and positions have also changed. The geopolitical situation, such as the arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro, has affected the market [21]. - Silver: It is consolidating at a high level. The prices of domestic and foreign silver futures and spot have fluctuated, and the trading volume and positions have changed accordingly [21]. Base Metals - Copper: The sentiment for going long is strong, and the price continues to rise. The prices of domestic and foreign copper futures have increased, and the trading volume and positions have changed. Geopolitical risks and macro - economic data have influenced the market [24]. - Zinc: It is oscillating strongly. The prices of domestic and foreign zinc futures have shown an upward trend, and the inventory has decreased, supporting the price [27]. - Lead: The inventory has decreased, supporting the price. The prices of domestic and foreign lead futures have changed slightly, and the inventory decline has provided some support [30]. - Tin: It is oscillating within a range. The prices of domestic and foreign tin futures have increased, and the trading volume and positions have changed [34]. - Aluminum: It continues to make up for losses. The prices of domestic and foreign aluminum futures have risen, and the spot market is weak but may be repaired [37]. - Alumina: It has declined slightly. The price of alumina futures has decreased, and the market is affected by supply and demand factors [37]. - Cast aluminum alloy: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The price of cast aluminum alloy is related to the price of electrolytic aluminum [37]. - Platinum: It is oscillating upward. The prices of platinum futures and spot have increased, and the trading volume and positions have changed [43]. - Palladium: It is oscillating within a range. The prices of palladium futures and spot have fluctuated, and the trading volume and positions have changed [43]. - Nickel: There is a game between real - world pressure and cycle - shift narratives, with wide - range oscillations. The price of nickel futures is affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand and policies [45]. - Stainless steel: The real - world fundamentals are dragging down the market, and the market is mainly gambling on Indonesian policies. The price of stainless steel futures is affected by domestic and foreign policies and supply - demand relationships [45]. Energy and Chemicals - Lithium carbonate: Concerns about supply contraction and positive demand expectations have led to an upward shift in the price center. The prices of lithium carbonate futures and spot have increased, and the market is affected by policies and demand [49]. - Industrial silicon: The fundamental situation is weak. The price of industrial silicon futures has declined, and the market is facing challenges in supply and demand [52]. - Polysilicon: It is oscillating at a high level, and attention should be paid to the impact of news. The price of polysilicon futures is affected by supply - demand and news factors [52]. - Iron ore: It is fluctuating at a high level. The price of iron ore futures has increased slightly, and the market is affected by supply - demand and macro - economic factors [56]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: The expectation of raw material winter storage and resumption of production may compress steel mill profits. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures have declined slightly, and the market is affected by supply - demand and policies [60]. - Ferrosilicon: The settlement electricity price has decreased, and the price is oscillating weakly. The price of ferrosilicon futures has declined, and the market is affected by electricity prices and supply - demand [64]. - Manganese silicon: After the holiday, the inquiry sentiment is strong, waiting for the steel procurement to be finalized. The price of manganese silicon futures has declined, and the market is waiting for steel procurement information [64]. - Coke and coking coal: Contradictions are accumulating, and they are oscillating weakly. The prices of coke and coking coal futures have declined, and the market is affected by supply - demand and environmental protection policies [67]. - Logs: They are oscillating at a low level. The prices of log futures have declined slightly, and the market is affected by supply - demand and seasonal factors [72]. - p - Xylene (PX), PTA, and MEG: PX and PTA are in a high - level oscillating market supported by cost. MEG has limited upside space and still faces pressure in the medium term. The prices of PX, PTA, and MEG futures have declined, and the market is affected by cost and supply - demand [75]. - Rubber: It is oscillating. The price of rubber futures has increased slightly, and the market is affected by supply - demand and inventory factors [80]. - Synthetic rubber: The short - term center has shifted upward. The price of synthetic rubber futures has increased, and the market is affected by cost and demand [83]. - LLDPE: The upstream inventory has been transferred, and the basis has strengthened. The price of LLDPE futures has declined slightly, and the market is affected by inventory transfer and geopolitical factors [86]. - PP: Multiple PDH units are planned to be overhauled in January, and the basis has strengthened. The price of PP futures has declined slightly, and the market is affected by production overhauls and cost factors [88]. - Caustic soda: It is not advisable to short. The price of caustic soda futures has declined, and the market is affected by delivery factors and supply - demand fundamentals [90][92]. - Pulp: It is oscillating widely. The price of pulp futures has declined slightly, and the market is affected by supply - demand and inventory factors [97]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable. The price of glass futures has declined slightly, and the market is affected by supply - demand and macro - economic factors [100]. - Methanol: It is expected to be strong in the short term. The price of methanol futures has declined slightly, and the market is affected by geopolitical factors and inventory expectations [104][107]. - Urea: The oscillation center has shifted upward. The price of urea futures has increased, and the market is affected by supply - demand and expectations of agricultural demand [108][109]. - Styrene: It is oscillating in the short term. The price of styrene futures has declined, and the market is affected by valuation and supply - demand factors [111][112]. - Soda ash: The spot market has changed little. The price of soda ash futures has declined, and the market is affected by supply - demand and production start - up rates [117]. - LPG: Geopolitical factors are disturbing the cost, and attention should be paid to the realization of downward drivers. The price of LPG futures has increased slightly, and the market is affected by geopolitical and supply - demand factors [120]. - Propylene: The upward and downward drivers are limited, and the spot trend is stabilizing. The price of propylene futures has declined slightly, and the market is affected by supply - demand and production start - up rates [121]. - PVC: It is strong in the short term and oscillating in the medium term. The price of PVC futures has declined slightly, and the market is affected by supply - demand and cost factors [130]. - Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil: The upward trend of fuel oil has paused, and there is support below. Low - sulfur fuel oil is oscillating narrowly. The prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures have declined, and the market is affected by supply - demand and international oil prices [133]. Shipping and Transportation - Container Freight Index (European Line): Attention should be paid to the opening guidance. The price of the container freight index futures has increased, and the market is affected by shipping capacity, freight rates, and geopolitical factors [135]. Agricultural Products - Short - fiber and bottle - chip: They are in a short - term oscillating market. The prices of short - fiber and bottle - chip futures have declined, and the market is affected by supply - demand and raw material prices [148]. - Offset - printing paper: It is advisable to wait and see. The price of offset - printing paper futures has increased slightly, and the market is affected by supply - demand and cost factors [151]. - Pure benzene: It is oscillating mainly in the short term. The price of pure benzene futures has declined, and the market is affected by inventory and supply - demand factors [155]. - Palm oil and soybean oil: Palm oil has weak fundamental drivers, and attention should be paid to the spill - over effect of crude oil fluctuations. Soybean oil is mainly in a unilateral range, and attention should be paid to the spread opportunities. The prices of palm oil and soybean oil futures have declined slightly, and the market is affected by supply - demand and international market factors [159]. - Soybean meal and soybeans: Soybean meal is oscillating strongly, and soybeans are rebounding and oscillating. The prices of soybean meal and soybean futures have changed, and the market is affected by international soybean prices and supply - demand [164]. - Corn: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The price of corn futures has declined slightly, and the market is affected by supply - demand and spot prices [168]. - Sugar: It is mainly in a weak - running state. The price of sugar futures has declined, and the market is affected by domestic and international production, consumption, and import policies [171]. - Cotton: It is maintaining a strong - oscillating trend. The price of cotton futures has increased, and the market is affected by domestic and international supply - demand and spot prices [176]. - Eggs: They are oscillating and adjusting. The price of egg futures has increased, and the market is affected by supply - demand and feed prices [181]. - Hogs: The weakness is emerging. The price of hog futures has declined slightly, and the market is affected by supply - demand and inventory factors [186]. - Peanuts: They are oscillating. The price of peanut futures has declined, and the market is affected by supply - demand and spot prices [190].
所长早读-20260106
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2026-01-06 05:37