Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Bearish rebound [1] - L: Bearish rebound [1] - PP: Bearish rebound [1] - PVC: Bullish with an upward bias [1] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [2] - MEG: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [3] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bearish [6] - Asphalt: Bearish rebound [6] - Glass: Bearish rebound [6] - Soda Ash: Bearish continuation [6] Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical uncertainties in South America and the Middle East have increased, leading to a short - term rebound in oil prices. However, the overall situation of crude oil supply surplus remains unchanged, and prices are under long - term pressure. Other energy - related products are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand relationship, and inventory, showing different trends [1][9]. - For chemical products, the supply - demand relationship, cost support, and device operation status are the main factors affecting their prices. Some products are expected to have short - term rebounds, while others are in a weak or bearish trend [1][2]. Summaries According to Different Categories Crude Oil - Market Performance: Overnight international oil prices slightly declined. WTI dropped 0.22%, Brent fell 0.26%, and SC rose 0.69%. The latest prices of WTI, Brent, and SC are $57.95/barrel, $61.33/barrel, and 438.6 yuan/barrel respectively [7][8]. - Fundamental Logic: Geopolitical factors in South America and the Middle East have led to a short - term rise in oil prices, but the core issue of supply surplus in the off - season remains. Global crude oil inventories are increasing, and US crude oil and refined product inventories are also accumulating [9]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions and buy call options for risk control. Pay attention to the range of SC [425 - 435] [11]. LPG - Market Performance: On January 5th, the PG main contract closed at 4159 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China increased [14]. - Fundamental Logic: Saudi Arabia raised the latest CP contract price, which short - term boosted the gas price. In the long - term, it is anchored to oil prices and is under pressure. Supply has increased, and downstream chemical demand has resilience [15]. - Strategy Recommendation: Continue to hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of PG [4150 - 4250] [16]. L - Market Performance: The L05 contract price decreased slightly. The L05 basis was - 69 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was - 47 yuan/ton [18][19]. - Fundamental Logic: It will fluctuate strongly in the short - term following the cost, but weak expectations limit the rebound height. Supply is sufficient, and there is pressure to reduce inventory in the future [20]. - Attention Range: L [6450 - 6600] [20] PP - Market Performance: The PP05 contract price decreased slightly. The PP05 basis was - 77 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was - 25 yuan/ton [22][23]. - Fundamental Logic: It will fluctuate strongly in the short - term following the oil price. The supply - demand relationship is weak, and the short - term supply pressure is relieved. Pay attention to the dynamics of PDH devices [24]. - Attention Range: PP [6300 - 6450] [24] PVC - Market Performance: The V05 contract price decreased slightly. The V05 basis was - 284 yuan/ton, the V59 spread was - 131 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts was 108477 [26][27]. - Fundamental Logic: Strong expectations dominate the short - term trend. The fundamental situation is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. Cost support has strengthened, increasing the expectation of future device maintenance. Pay attention to inventory changes [28]. - Attention Range: V [4800 - 4950] [28] PTA - Market Performance: The TA05 contract price decreased. The TA05 basis was - 13 yuan/ton, and the TA5 - 9 spread was 100 yuan/ton [29]. - Fundamental Logic: Valuation is not low, and the supply - demand relationship is relatively tight in the short - term. Some devices have been restored, but the overall maintenance intensity is high. Downstream demand is good but expected to weaken. Pay attention to the negative feedback from the demand side [30]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on the callback for the 05 contract. TA05 [5070 - 5150] [31] MEG - Market Performance: The EG05 contract price decreased. The EG05 basis was - 125 yuan/ton, and the EG5 - 9 spread was - 93 yuan/ton [32]. - Fundamental Logic: Valuation is low, and there is a lack of upward momentum. The domestic device load has increased, demand is expected to weaken, and port inventories are rising. It will fluctuate following the cost in the short - term [33]. - Strategy Recommendation: Close short positions and pay attention to the opportunity to short on the rebound. EG05 [3720 - 3800] [34] Methanol - Market Performance: The main contract decreased in position and increased in price. The East China basis and the 1 - 5 spread strengthened [37]. - Fundamental Logic: Valuation is not low. Supply pressure still exists, and demand has weakened slightly. The supply - demand relationship is slightly loose, but the downside space is limited [37]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on the callback for the methanol 05 contract. MA05 [2220 - 2280] [39] Urea - Market Performance: The urea main contract price was 1749 yuan/ton, and the Shandong small - particle basis was - 39 yuan/ton [43]. - Fundamental Logic: The supply pressure is expected to increase in mid - January. Demand has weakened recently, and the social inventory is still at a relatively high level. However, there is an arbitrage window between domestic and foreign markets and the expectation of spring fertilizer use [42][43]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the callback for the 05 contract. UR05 [1730 - 1760] [44] Natural Gas - Market Performance: On January 5th, the NG main contract closed at $3.618/MMBtu, a decrease of 1.84% [46]. - Fundamental Logic: The demand side is in the consumption peak season, but the recent mild weather in the US has reduced the demand support for gas prices. The supply side is relatively abundant, and gas prices are under pressure [47]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the range of NG [3.250 - 3.680] [47] Asphalt - Market Performance: On December 31st, the BU main contract closed at 3022 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.53%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China changed [50]. - Fundamental Logic: Geopolitical factors in South America have led to an expected shortage of raw materials. Supply has decreased in January 2026, and demand has increased slightly. Inventory has increased [51]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short positions should be cautious about risks. Pay attention to the range of BU [3100 - 3250] [52] Glass - Market Performance: The FG05 contract price decreased slightly. The FG05 basis was - 81 yuan/ton, the FG59 spread was - 102 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts was 1676 [54][55]. - Fundamental Logic: Factory inventory has changed from increasing to decreasing. Short - term cold - repair expectations support the price, but long - term weak demand limits the rebound height [56]. - Attention Range: FG [1070 - 1120] [56] Soda Ash - Market Performance: The SA05 contract price decreased. The SA05 basis was - 37 yuan/ton, the SA59 spread was - 72 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts was 4776 [58][59]. - Fundamental Logic: The continuous decline of float glass daily melting has led to insufficient demand support for heavy soda ash. Supply is expected to be loose in the long - term [60]. - Attention Range: SA [1150 - 1200] [60]
中辉能化观点-20260106
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2026-01-06 05:35