2026年聚酯产业年报：产能投放后期，产业曙光已现

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In 2026, oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile, with a low probability of a significant decline. PX production is concentrated in the second half of the year, and inventory pressure is low in the first half. PX supply and demand will remain tight, and the current PXN spread has expanded to a relatively high level. Attention should be paid to opportunities for low - buying on pullbacks and positive spreads in calendar spreads, as well as the commissioning rhythm of new plants [2][69]. - In 2026, there will be no new PTA capacity. Although PTA capacity is still in excess compared to the downstream polyester segment, PTA output is restricted by raw material PX. With a decent growth rate in polyester production, there is an expectation of inventory reduction in PTA supply and demand, and an expectation of processing margin repair, especially after the commissioning of new PX plants in the second half of the year. Attention should be paid to opportunities for phased low - buying and widening far - month processing margins [3][69]. - In 2026, the growth rate of MEG capacity will pick up again, and the supply growth rate is greater than the demand growth rate. The negative feedback of existing MEG plants to profit compression is still insufficient, and it will take a longer time to squeeze the supply. Supply pressure is high, especially in the first and fourth quarters. It is recommended to go long on PTA and short on MEG opportunistically, while being vigilant against phased expectation differences and raw material price fluctuations [4][69]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review PX Market Review - In 2025, PX prices trended from low to high, and the PXN spread gradually recovered. PX was a relatively prosperous chemical product throughout the year. The PXN spread was at a low level in the first quarter due to high PX operating rates at the end of 2024 and in the first quarter, and then recovered as new PTA plants were commissioned and PX plants entered the maintenance period. In the second quarter, PX prices first declined and then rebounded, affected by trade conflicts and their subsequent easing. The PXN spread showed a similar trend. In the third quarter, PX prices fluctuated downward due to weakening cost - end oil prices and supply - demand expectations. In the fourth quarter, PX prices rebounded as oil prices stabilized and rebounded, and the market had positive expectations for the PX pattern in 2026 [6]. PTA Market Review - In 2025, PTA prices were similar to PX, with large - scale capacity and new plant commissions suppressing PTA processing margins. In the first quarter, PTA prices followed the cost - end down, and the processing margin fluctuated around 300 yuan/ton. In the second quarter, PTA prices fell to a five - year low at the beginning of April due to trade conflicts, and then rebounded as the conflicts eased. In the third quarter, PTA prices gradually declined due to the overall downturn in chemicals and expected inventory build - up. In the fourth quarter, PTA prices rose as oil prices rebounded and PTA plants increased maintenance due to low processing margins, and the market had positive expectations for the PX and PTA supply - demand patterns in 2026 [7][10]. MEG Market Review - In 2025, MEG experienced two rounds of decline under the impact of the macro - trade war and its own supply - demand entering the inventory build - up channel. In the first quarter, MEG prices gradually declined as terminal demand started slowly. In the second quarter, MEG prices were affected by tariff policy events, oil prices, and geopolitical conflicts, showing a volatile trend. In the third quarter, MEG prices first rose due to positive policies and cost support, and then fell as the peak - season demand did not improve and new capacity was commissioned. In the fourth quarter, MEG prices continued to decline as domestic and foreign supply increased and the market anticipated future inventory build - up, and slightly recovered at the end of December [12]. 2. Market Analysis PX - In 2026, supply surplus will pose a downward risk to oil prices, mainly due to the increase in non - OPEC countries. However, as oil prices have been falling for four consecutive years, they may be more resilient in 2026. Brent crude oil prices are expected to range between $55 - 75 per barrel, and 2026 may be a bottom - building year for oil prices [16]. - In 2025, 300,000 tons of new PX capacity were commissioned in China, with an annual capacity growth rate of 1%. By the end of 2025, the total domestic PX capacity was expected to reach 4.397 million tons/year. In 2026, new PX plants will be commissioned in China, mainly in the second half of the year. Although there will be no new PTA capacity in 2026, PX supply and demand may still be tight overall. The PXN spread is expected to remain strong, and the market will focus more on cost - end price fluctuations [17][20]. PTA - In 2025, three PTA plants with a total capacity of 8.6 million tons/year were commissioned in China, with an annual capacity growth rate of 10%. By the end of 2025, the domestic PTA capacity was expected to reach 9.4715 million tons/year. In 2026, there will be no new PTA capacity, but production is expected to increase by about 2.5 million tons, mainly due to the release of 2025 - commissioned capacity and reduced losses from some plants. PTA exports are expected to decrease by about 1 million tons compared to 2025. With a 4% growth in domestic polyester production expected in 2026, the overall supply - demand will be slightly tight with a small inventory reduction [25][27]. - In terms of rhythm, polyester will face inventory build - up pressure after the Spring Festival, and the supply - demand pattern will improve from the second quarter. In the second half of the year, PTA maintenance is expected to decrease, and polyester operating rates will slightly decline, maintaining a tight - balance state [28]. MEG - In 2025, 170,000 tons/year of new MEG capacity were commissioned in China, with an annual capacity growth rate of 6%. By the end of 2025, the domestic MEG capacity was expected to reach 3.0525 million tons. In 2026, 275,000 tons of new MEG capacity are expected to be commissioned, with a capacity growth rate expanding to 9%. MEG will re - enter the peak capacity commissioning period, and prices will be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the maintenance of syngas - based MEG plants and the impact of macro - policies, special events, and oil prices [32][35]. Polyester - In 2025, 446,000 tons of new polyester capacity were commissioned in China, with an annual capacity growth rate of 5%. By the end of 2025, the domestic polyester capacity was expected to reach 8.984 million tons. In 2026, 401,000 tons of new polyester capacity are expected to be commissioned, with a capacity growth rate of about 4%. Production is expected to reach about 8.3 million tons, with a 4% increase. Polyester net exports are expected to reach about 1.5 million tons, with a 7% increase. Polyester's average operating rate will be about 90% [45][48]. Spinning and Apparel - In the domestic market in 2025, the cumulative year - on - year increase in the operating income of the textile, clothing, and apparel industry ended in June, and the decline by November exceeded the levels of recent years. The cumulative year - on - year change in the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles was small, with a 4% increase by November. Product inventories in the textile, clothing, and apparel industry decreased year - on - year, with a 4% reduction by the end of November. The inventory pressure in the spinning and apparel industry is not large, and there are expectations for policy - driven domestic demand growth in 2026 [61][63]. - From January to November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth of textile yarn, fabric, and product exports was 0.8%, while that of clothing and clothing accessories was - 4.7%. Exports of Southeast Asian countries were strong, indicating that external demand in Europe and the United States was good, and the impact of trade conflicts and industrial transfer was evident [65]. 3. Market Outlook - In 2026, oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile, with low probability of a significant decline. PX production is concentrated in the second half of the year, and inventory pressure is low in the first half. PX supply and demand will remain tight, and attention should be paid to low - buying on pullbacks and positive spreads in calendar spreads, as well as the commissioning rhythm of new plants [2][69]. - In 2026, there will be no new PTA capacity, but PTA output is restricted by PX. With a decent growth rate in polyester production, there is an expectation of inventory reduction in PTA supply and demand, and an expectation of processing margin repair. Attention should be paid to phased low - buying and widening far - month processing margins [3][69]. - In 2026, the supply pressure of MEG is high, especially in the first and fourth quarters. It is recommended to go long on PTA and short on MEG opportunistically, while being vigilant against phased expectation differences and raw material price fluctuations [4][69].