Huachuang Securities·2026-01-06 06:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [20]. Core Insights - The investment banking evaluation system has been upgraded to guide the industry towards a focus on "functional" and "high-quality" services, reflecting a shift from quantity to value in competition [6][7]. - The latest evaluation results show a significant differentiation among firms, with only 12 out of 93 evaluated brokerages receiving an A rating, including top firms like CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities. This indicates a stricter regulatory environment and emphasizes compliance and operational quality as core constraints [6][7]. - The revised evaluation criteria include five core indicators aimed at enhancing the service capabilities of investment banks, particularly in supporting new industries and mergers and acquisitions [6][7]. Industry Data Summary - As of January 5, 2026, the total market capitalization of the industry is approximately 4,146.1 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 3,490.7 billion yuan [2]. - The absolute performance of the industry over the past 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is 3.4%, 9.6%, and 15.3%, respectively, while the relative performance shows a decline of 0.5%, -8.9%, and -9.7% compared to the benchmark [3]. Company Performance and Valuation - Key companies such as GF Securities, CITIC Securities, and Huatai Securities are rated as "Recommended," with projected EPS for 2026 at 1.94 yuan, 1.91 yuan, and 2.07 yuan respectively. Their PE ratios for 2026 are estimated at 11.76, 15.36, and 11.76 times respectively [7]. - The PB ratio for the brokerage sector is currently at 1.52x, which is positioned at the 80.8th percentile over the past three years, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to historical data [6][9].