首席点评：中韩举行会谈

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a bias assessment for various varieties, with some considered bullish (2) and others bearish (2). Bullish varieties include multiple stock indices (IH, IF, IC, IM), bonds (TF, TS), rubber, rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, silver, copper, lithium carbonate, cotton, sugar, corn; bearish varieties include crude oil, methanol, apple, and container shipping to Europe [5]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroeconomic Outlook: The global economy shows signs of change, with the US economy facing challenges such as a decline in the ISM manufacturing index, while China's economy has positive signals like the improvement of manufacturing PMI. The Fed's expected interest - rate cuts and global easing monetary policies will have an impact on various asset prices [1][11]. - Asset Price Trends: Precious metals are expected to have a long - term upward trend due to factors such as inflation relief, weak employment, and supply - demand gaps. Copper prices are at a high level, affected by factors such as supply shortages and market sentiment. Oil prices are expected to be bearish in the short term, but the global oil market supply - demand balance will not change significantly in the next 12 months [2][3][13]. - A - share Market: The A - share market is expected to form a long - term and stable upward trend under the influence of supply - side reform, RMB appreciation, capital inflows, and policy support [10]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Daily Main News 3.1.1 International News - On January 5th, China and South Korea signed a memorandum of understanding on cooperation in safeguarding children's rights and well - being, aiming to strengthen exchanges and cooperation in the field of children's development [6]. 3.1.2 Domestic News - The national parenting subsidy in 2026 is open for application starting from January 5th. As of now, 31 provinces have issued parenting subsidies in 2025, with over 24 million people receiving them and a subsidy issuance rate of about 80% [7]. 3.1.3 Industry News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission held a symposium on promoting the cross - departmental work of the comprehensive prevention and control system for financial fraud in the capital market, emphasizing the need to improve the system, strengthen coordination, and combat financial fraud [8]. 3.2 Overseas Daily Earnings - The report provides the daily earnings data of various overseas assets on January 4th and 5th, including stock indices (S&P 500, C STOXX50, FTSE China A50 futures), the US dollar index, oil prices (ICE Brent crude oil), precious metals (London gold, London silver), and other commodities. Most assets showed an upward trend [9]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Financial - Stock Indices: US stock indices rose, and the A - share market also increased significantly. It is expected that supply - side reform in 2026 will drive up commodity prices and resource - related stocks. The appreciation of the RMB is expected to attract overseas funds, and the A - share market is expected to form a long - term upward trend [10]. - Bonds: Bond prices fell slightly. Overseas events and changes in the US economic data affected the bond market. China's economic data showed improvement, and the government's policies are expected to support the short - term bond futures prices [11][12]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Overseas oil prices rebounded after a sharp decline. Venezuela has large oil reserves, but its future is uncertain, and short - term risks may affect production. The global oil market supply - demand balance will not change significantly in the next 12 months, and oil prices are expected to be bearish [13]. - Methanol: Methanol prices rose at night. The开工 rate of coal - to - olefin plants decreased slightly, while the overall methanol plant's operating rate increased. Coastal methanol inventories rose significantly, and short - term methanol prices are expected to be weak [14]. - Polyolefins: Polyolefin futures rebounded and then fell. Downstream demand has peaked, and the cost support is low. Polyolefin prices may move sideways in the future [15]. - Glass and Soda Ash: Glass futures fell slightly, and soda ash futures mainly declined. Both are in the process of inventory digestion. Glass inventory digestion is accelerating under the supply - contraction pattern, while soda ash still needs time for supply - demand digestion [16]. 3.3.3 Metals - Precious Metals: Gold and silver continued to rebound. The weak US economy, expected interest - rate cuts, and supply - demand gaps support the long - term upward trend of precious metals, although short - term fluctuations may occur [17][18]. - Copper: Copper prices rose at night, reaching a new high. The supply of concentrates is tight, and the global copper supply - demand situation is expected to turn to a shortage. Short - term copper prices are more affected by market sentiment [19]. - Zinc: Zinc prices rose at night. The supply of zinc concentrates is temporarily tight, and the overall zinc supply - demand difference is not obvious. Attention should be paid to the market sentiment, the US dollar, and downstream demand [20]. - Aluminum: Aluminum prices rose, reaching a new high. The macro - level focuses on employment and interest - rate cut expectations. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable in the short - to - medium term, and demand is still acceptable. Attention should be paid to the impact of the approaching Spring Festival on downstream demand [21]. 3.3.4 Black Metals - Coking Coal and Coke: The prices of coking coal and coke fell slightly at night. The production of domestic clean coal decreased, while the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume remained high. The iron - water production and the profitability of sample steel mills were stable. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate [22]. 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - Protein Meal: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated and rose at night. Brazilian soybean planting and harvesting progress is similar to previous years, and the US soybean export sales are lower than expected. The domestic market is affected by supply expectations and state - reserve auctions [23][24]. - Oils and Fats: The price of soybean oil fluctuated and rose at night, while palm and rapeseed oils were weak. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is expected to increase, and the supply - demand situation of oils and fats will not improve significantly in the short term [25]. - Sugar: The price of sugar futures oscillated. Internationally, Brazilian sugar production is coming to an end, and the supply pressure is relieved. Domestically, the sugar production season has begun, and the supply is increasing. The import policy and production cost support the price, but the short - term price is expected to remain low [26]. - Cotton: The price of cotton futures was strong. Although the new cotton harvest is good, the sales progress is fast. There are rumors that the cotton planting area in Xinjiang may decrease, and the improvement of Sino - US relations is also beneficial to cotton exports [27]. 3.3.6 Shipping Index - Container Shipping to Europe: The price of container shipping to Europe opened high and fluctuated. The SCFIS European line index rose, and shipping companies continued to raise prices. Due to the late Spring Festival, the demand and price - support from shipping companies exceeded expectations. As the Spring Festival approaches, the price inflection point may become clear [28][29].