工业硅、多晶硅日报-20260106

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 5, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2605 closing at 8,730 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 1.24%, and an increase of 13,298 lots in positions to 217,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon from Baichuan remained stable at 9,603 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable product remained stable at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot changed from a discount to a premium of 120 yuan/ton. Polysilicon fluctuated strongly, with the main contract 2605 closing at 58,645 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2.31%, and a decrease of 1,797 lots in positions to 75,000 lots. The price of Baichuan's N-type re - fed silicon material was raised to 53,250 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material was also raised to 53,250 yuan/ton. The spot discount to the main contract widened to 5,395 yuan/ton [2]. - The main production area of industrial silicon continues to shift northward. Although there is a reduction in production due to environmental protection, it cannot offset the decline in demand. Polysilicon has limited production cuts, the organic silicon industry has a collective production cut, and the aluminum alloy industry has an environmental protection - related production cut. Industrial silicon has cost support but no upward driving force, so it is advisable to consider short - selling on rebounds [2]. - Although the recent increase in battery cells has led to a price increase in the photovoltaic industry chain, due to the blockage in the component link, the effect of further price increases is limited, and downstream enterprises have further expanded the scale of production cuts. In January, industry self - discipline and joint production cuts of silicon materials are expected to lead to an unexpected reduction in polysilicon supply, providing strong support. At the same time, due to the exchange's implementation of risk control and position limits, the upward premium space is tightened. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts by silicon material factories, the purchasing sentiment of downstream enterprises, and the inventory dynamics of the industrial chain [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Viewpoints - Industrial silicon fluctuated weakly, and polysilicon fluctuated strongly on January 5. Industrial silicon has cost - support but lacks upward drivers, and polysilicon may have an unexpected supply reduction [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Industrial silicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 130 yuan/ton to 8,730 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract decreased by 145 yuan/ton to 8,630 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon remained stable. The current lowest deliverable product price remained at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot changed from a discount to a premium of 120 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 10,231, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 18,175 tons to 51,155 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 7,750 tons to 448,400 tons [4]. - Polysilicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased by 725 yuan/ton to 58,645 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract increased by 830 yuan/ton to 58,500 yuan/ton. The prices of some polysilicon products increased, with the current lowest deliverable product price rising to 53,250 yuan/ton, and the spot discount to the main contract widening to 5,395 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 4,030, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 81,000 tons to 120,900 tons, and the social inventory increased by 26,000 tons to 308,000 tons [4]. - Organic silicon: The prices of DMC in the East China market, raw rubber, and 107 glue remained stable, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 15,200 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Industrial silicon and cost - side prices: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][9][11]. - Downstream product prices: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [14][16][18]. - Inventory: Charts present the industrial silicon and polysilicon futures inventories, weekly industrial silicon industry inventories, weekly industrial silicon inventory changes, weekly polysilicon inventories, and weekly DMC inventories [21][22][24]. - Cost - profit: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of industrial silicon, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, polysilicon processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and aluminum alloy cost - profit [26][28][31]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in the non - ferrous metal and new energy industries, and have won many industry - related awards [34][35].