碳酸锂日报（2026年1月6日）-20260106

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - On January 5, 2026, the lithium carbonate futures 2605 contract rose 7.74% to 129,980 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 119,500 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose by 1,500 yuan/ton to 117,000 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased by 500 yuan/ton to 110,800 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory remained at 20,281 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output increased by 259 tons to 22,420 tons. In January 2026, the lithium carbonate output is expected to decline by 1.2% to 97,970 tons. On the demand side, in January 2026, the output of ternary materials, ternary power batteries, and iron - lithium power batteries is expected to decline, while the iron - lithium energy storage output is expected to increase by 0.99% to 63.15GWh. In terms of inventory, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 168 tons to 109,605 tons [3]. - Recently, due to overseas geopolitical disturbances, continued domestic stimulus policies, and speculation about solid waste, the lithium price rose significantly. According to preliminary production scheduling data, supply and demand are both weak in January. There is a risk of inventory accumulation, but considering the current inventory structure and the medium - to - long - term trading logic of being bullish on lithium prices, it is believed that there will be restocking demand when prices fall, and prices are more likely to rise than fall [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Price Changes: The lithium carbonate futures 2605 contract, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide prices all increased on January 5, 2026, while the warehouse receipt inventory was unchanged [3]. - Supply - Demand - Inventory Situation: The weekly supply increased, but the January 2026 output is expected to decline. The demand for most products in January 2026 is expected to decline, except for iron - lithium energy storage. The weekly social inventory decreased [3]. - Price Outlook: Short - term terminal demand cannot be falsified, and there is no conclusion on the procurement, sales, pricing mechanism, and processing fees at the cathode end. Considering the inventory structure and long - term bullish logic, the price is likely to rise [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures and Lithium Ore: The closing prices of the main and continuous contracts of lithium carbonate futures increased, the price of lithium mica increased, and the price of lithium spodumene concentrate decreased. The prices of some other lithium ores remained unchanged [5]. - Lithium and Lithium Salts: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide increased, and the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged [5]. - Price Spreads: The spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased, while some other spreads increased [5]. - Precursors and Cathode Materials: The prices of various ternary precursors and cathode materials, as well as lithium iron phosphate and lithium manganate, increased, and the price of cobalt acid lithium also increased [5]. - Lithium Batteries: The prices of various lithium battery cells and batteries remained unchanged [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Ore Prices: The report shows the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, different grades of lithium mica, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone from 2024 to 2026 [6][9]. - Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices: It presents the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2026 [12][17]. - Price Spreads: The report displays the price spread trends between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and some other spreads from 2024 to 2026 [19][20]. - Precursors and Cathode Materials: It shows the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2026 [25][30]. - Lithium Battery Prices: The report presents the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt - acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2026 [32][36]. - Inventory: It shows the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from May 15, 2025, to December 11, 2025 [38][40]. - Production Costs: The report displays the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 to 2026 [43][44].