Haitong Securities International·2026-01-06 06:30Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [5][25]. Core Insights - The outlook for 2026 marks the beginning of the Fifteenth Five-Year Plan, with a focus on high-quality development driven by regulatory requirements. The current new housing market, valued at 8 trillion RMB, shows some capacity for sales, emphasizing the importance of fiscal efforts and the timing of blue-chip competition [5][30]. - In December 2025, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a monthly sales amount of 3.13 trillion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 19.0%, but a narrowing of the decline by 0.9 percentage points compared to November 2025. Equity sales reached 2.46 trillion RMB, down 20.1% year-on-year, with an equity ratio of 79% [5][30]. - The report highlights that most top 100 companies experienced negative year-on-year sales growth in December 2025, with the highest sales recorded by China Overseas Land & Investment at 38 billion RMB [19][30]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In December 2025, the top 100 real estate companies' sales amounted to 324.65 billion RMB, up 39.3% month-on-month but down 26.1% year-on-year. Equity sales were 261.53 billion RMB, up 42.0% month-on-month and down 28.7% year-on-year [7][19]. - The top 50 companies recorded sales of 273.41 billion RMB, down 18.6% year-on-year, with equity sales of 211.44 billion RMB, down 18.8% year-on-year [7][19]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment: 1) Development: A-Shares - China Vanke, Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, Beijing Urban Construction, Hangzhou Binjiang, Gemdale; H-Shares - China Overseas Land, C&D International [25][30]. 2) Commercial Residential: China Resources Land, Longfor Group [25][30]. 3) Property: Onewo, China Resources Mixc, China Overseas Property, Poly Property, China Merchants Property, ChongQing New DaZheng [25][30]. 4) Cultural Tourism: Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town [25][30]. Monthly Sales Trends - In December 2025, the top 11-20 companies had a sales threshold decrease of 4.3%, while the top 51-100 companies saw a more significant decline of 28.5% [16][30]. - Among the top 50 companies, 9 achieved positive year-on-year growth, with China State Construction Development leading at 213.2% [19][30].