20260106申万期货有色金属基差日报-20260106

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price rose 1.28% overnight, hitting a new record high. The supply of concentrate remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output has declined month - on - month, it continues to grow overall. The supply disruption of copper mines has led to a shift in the global copper supply - demand expectation to a deficit, and the short - term copper price is more affected by market sentiment [2]. - The zinc price rose overnight. The processing fee of zinc concentrate has declined, the supply of concentrate is in a stage of tightness, and smelting output continues to grow. The overall inventory of galvanized sheets is at a high level. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but the overall market sentiment of non - ferrous metals needs to be concerned [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Copper - Price change: The copper price rose 1.28% overnight and hit a new record high [2]. - Supply situation: The supply of concentrate is tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output has declined month - on - month, it continues to grow overall [2]. - Demand situation: Power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is negative, and the real estate market is weak [2]. - Market expectation: The supply disruption of copper mines has led to a shift in the global copper supply - demand expectation to a deficit, and the short - term copper price is more affected by market sentiment [2]. - Data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 101,190 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 45 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 13,088 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 41.98 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 145,325 tons, and the daily change was - 2,100 tons [2]. Zinc - Price change: The zinc price rose overnight [2]. - Supply situation: The processing fee of zinc concentrate has declined, the supply of concentrate is in a stage of tightness, and smelting output continues to grow [2]. - Demand situation: The overall inventory of galvanized sheets is at a high level. Infrastructure investment growth has slowed down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is negative, and the real estate market is weak [2]. - Market expectation: The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but the overall market sentiment of non - ferrous metals needs to be concerned [2]. - Data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 23,800 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 165 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,208 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 36.30 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 106,325 tons, and the daily change was - 1,300 tons [2]. Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 23,610 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 230 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,090 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 27.69 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 509,250 tons, and the daily change was - 2,500 tons [2]. - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 133,750 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 5,920 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 17,290 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 151.78 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 255,282 tons, and the daily change was 120 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,375 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 75 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,030 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 45.52 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 239,325 tons, and the daily change was - 2,600 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 334,030 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 7,990 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 42,560 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 30.01 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 5,415 tons, and the daily change was - 5 tons [2].