农产品日报-20260106

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Corn is expected to experience a downward trend with fluctuations. The maize market is affected by wheat auction sales policies, and during the period from New Year's Day to the Spring Festival, there is a bearish outlook. The trading activity of maize is expected to gradually increase as dry grains increase and the Spring Festival approaches [2]. - Soybean meal is expected to trade in a narrow range. The CBOT soybean prices rose on Monday, but the domestic double - meal market is trading lightly. The spot inventory is rising, and the basis is weak, which restricts the price increase. A double - selling strategy is recommended [2]. - Oils are expected to trade with fluctuations. The BMD palm oil rose on Monday, but the domestic oil market is divided, with palm oil dropping significantly and soybean oil and rapeseed oil showing strength. A double - selling strategy is recommended [2]. - Eggs are expected to trade with fluctuations. The spot price of eggs is stable during the festival, and there is pressure on the short - term supply. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the changes in the willingness of the breeding end to replenish and cull [2]. - Pigs are expected to trade with fluctuations. The spot price of pigs has declined after the festival, and the futures price has also adjusted. It is recommended to set a dynamic stop - profit for profitable long positions and pay attention to the technical performance of the long - term moving average of the main pig futures contract [3]. Group 3: Summary of Market Information - Indonesia has set the reference price of crude palm oil in January at $915.64 per ton, lower than that in December. The export tax will remain at $74 per ton, and a 10% special export tax is also levied [4]. - The estimated soybean production in Argentina for the 2025/26 season has been lowered by 1% to 46 million tons, with an estimated range of 44.8 - 47.2 million tons [4]. - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from late December to mid - December 2025, among 50 important production materials in 9 categories, 18 products' prices rose, 28 declined, and 4 remained unchanged. The price of live pigs (ternary) increased by 1.7% month - on - month [4]. - According to SPPOMA data, from December 1 - 31, 2025, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 7.39% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.13% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 8.07% month - on - month [4]. - OPEC+ agreed to maintain stable oil production in the first quarter of 2026. The organization had agreed in November last year to suspend production increases in January, February, and March. The next meeting will be held on February 1 [5]. Group 4: Summary of Variety Spreads 3.1 Contract Spreads - The report presents contract spreads such as corn 5 - 9, corn starch 5 - 9, soybeans 5 - 9, soybean meal 5 - 9, soybean oil 5 - 9, palm oil 5 - 9, eggs 5 - 9, and pigs 5 - 9 [6][7][8][10][13]. 3.2 Contract Basis - The report presents contract basis such as corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [15][16][18][20][24]. Group 5: Introduction of the Agricultural Product Research Team - Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title in the Futures Daily and Securities Times' Best Futures Analyst selection for many years. She led the team to win the title of the top ten research and investment teams of the Dalian Commodity Exchange in 2019 and the Grand Prize of the "Sailing in the Futures Sea" College Student Practice Competition of the Dalian Commodity Exchange in 2023 [28]. - Hou Xueling, an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures, has more than a decade of futures experience. She has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title for many years and her team has won multiple awards [28]. - Kong Hailan, an economics master, is a researcher in the egg and pig industries at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has participated in many media interviews and her team has won multiple awards [28].