——宏观专题报告：设备投资，能否持续高增？

Group 1: Misconceptions about Equipment Investment Growth - Equipment investment growth is not primarily driven by the "Juga Cycle" but rather by strong infrastructure and service sector investments, with construction industry growth at 65.5% and narrow infrastructure at 46.1% in 2024, contributing an additional 8.2 percentage points to overall equipment investment[2] - The perception that equipment investment is strongly influenced by the "Two New" policies is misleading, as significant increases in manufacturing investment and equipment purchases occurred as early as February 2024, before the policies were intensified[2] - Manufacturing equipment investment growth was only 6.5% in 2024, significantly lower than the overall equipment investment growth of 15.7%[3] Group 2: Drivers of Equipment Investment Growth - The establishment of a modern industrial system has strengthened digital infrastructure, with software industry growth at 53% and computer services at 35%, contributing to overall equipment investment[4] - Public utility equipment investment has surged since the "dual carbon" policy was intensified in 2021, with electricity and heat equipment investment growing at 17.6%[4] - Service sector equipment investment has outpaced construction investment since 2023, with growth rates of 13.9% compared to 2.8% for construction investment[5] Group 3: Sustainability of Equipment Investment Growth - Equipment investment is expected to continue high growth in 2026, supported by a rebound in narrow infrastructure, particularly in digital infrastructure and hub-related investments[6] - The "dual carbon" policy is expected to further drive investment in equipment for carbon reduction, including high-energy-consuming industries and renewable energy investments[7] - Policies focused on "investing in people" are anticipated to boost service sector equipment investment, with a recovery gap of 2-3 trillion yuan in consumer-related service investments[7] Group 4: External Demand and Investment Resilience - Equipment investment related to external demand is expected to remain resilient, particularly in sectors supporting industrialization in emerging economies, with strong export growth to ASEAN countries driven by improved internal demand[8] - The inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) into emerging economies is likely to accelerate, supporting industrialization and urbanization, which will further bolster equipment investment[8]