宏观专题分析报告：政策如何做好开门红

Economic Outlook - 2026 is crucial for the "14th Five-Year Plan," aiming for a strong economic start with significant long-term implications[2] - The focus will be on investment-driven growth, particularly in infrastructure, healthcare, and urban renewal[2][4] Fiscal Policy - Central and state-owned enterprises will lead infrastructure investments, with a focus on addressing local fiscal challenges[2][7] - The shift from "three guarantees" (people's livelihood, wages, and operations) to "five guarantees" (including debt repayment) highlights the need for sustainable fiscal policies[2][11] Budget and Spending - The general public budget expenditure for 2026 is expected to increase by over 1 trillion yuan compared to 2025, with a deficit expansion contributing 220 billion yuan[2][14][16] - The 2026 deficit rate is projected to remain similar to 2025, with efforts to enhance tax collection and streamline fiscal policies to boost revenue[2][14] Investment Strategy - Investment recovery is critical, with a focus on major projects that can stimulate demand and stabilize the economy[5][6] - The government plans to allocate 220 billion yuan for early-stage construction projects, emphasizing urban infrastructure and public services[6][7] Risks and Challenges - There is a risk of misinterpretation of policies, which could hinder investment recovery[3][18] - Local governments face significant debt pressures, potentially limiting their ability to drive investment growth[18]