Riders on the Charts:每周大类资产配置图表精粹：【资产配置快评】2026年第1期-20260106

Economic Growth Expectations - Economic growth expectations for major overseas economies in 2026 show divergence, with the US GDP expected to grow by 2%, Japan by 0.8%, the UK by 1.1%, and the Eurozone by 1.2%[4] - The growth expectation gap between the US and Europe increased from 0.6% to 0.8%, while the gap between the US and the UK rose from 0.6% to 0.9%[4] Inflation Expectations - Short-term inflation expectations have rebounded across major economies, with the US 2-year inflation expectation rising to 2.3%, Eurozone to 1.7%, Japan to 2%, and the UK to 3.1%[7] - The European Central Bank faces the most pressure for monetary easing, while the Bank of England faces the most pressure for tightening due to higher inflation expectations[7] Monetary Policy Divergence - There is a divergence in monetary policy expectations among central banks, with higher inflation expectations leading to anticipated rate cuts by the Fed and the Bank of England, while lower expectations suggest potential rate hikes by the ECB and the Bank of Japan[10] Long-term Bond Yields - A scenario where significant Fed rate cuts lead to rising long-term US Treasury yields is re-emerging, as seen in 2024 and 2025, where a 100 basis point cut led to a rise in 10-year Treasury yields to around 4.2%[13] Speculative Positions - Speculative positions in the US dollar have decreased, with net short positions falling to 13.7% of total dollar futures open interest, the lowest level since August[16] Equity Risk Premium - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 index is at 4.2%, which is one standard deviation below the 16-year average, indicating potential for valuation uplift[18] Forward Arbitrage Returns - The forward arbitrage return for China's 10-year government bonds is 35 basis points, which is 65 basis points higher than the level in December 2016[22] Currency Swap Basis - The 3-month USD/JPY swap basis is at -21.5 basis points, indicating increased pressure on offshore dollar financing, while the Libor-OIS spread is at 125.1 basis points[25] Commodity Indicators - The copper-to-gold price ratio has risen to 2.9, indicating upward momentum in global demand, while the offshore RMB exchange rate has reached 7.0, suggesting mixed signals between the two indicators[27] Stock and Bond Performance - The total return ratio of domestic stocks to bonds is at 28.7, above the 16-year average, suggesting enhanced attractiveness of equity assets relative to fixed income[29]