Huachuang Securities·2026-01-06 08:16Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for BYD, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][17]. Core Views - BYD's total sales for the year are projected to reach 4.6 million vehicles, with strong performance from the Fangchengbao model and exports [2][7]. - The target price is set at 113.8 CNY for A-shares and 111.2 HKD for H-shares, reflecting a robust growth outlook despite recent challenges [2][7]. Financial Summary - Revenue Forecast: Total revenue is expected to grow from 777.1 billion CNY in 2024 to 1,070.5 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13.5% [3][8]. - Net Profit: Projected net profit is anticipated to decline from 40.3 billion CNY in 2024 to 35.2 billion CNY in 2025, before rebounding to 60.0 billion CNY in 2027, indicating a significant recovery [3][8]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): EPS is forecasted to decrease from 4.42 CNY in 2024 to 3.86 CNY in 2025, then increase to 6.58 CNY by 2027 [3][8]. - Valuation Ratios: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to range from 22 in 2024 to 15 in 2027, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to decline from 4.8 to 2.6 over the same period [3][8]. Sales Performance - Sales Breakdown: In December, BYD sold 134,000 vehicles, with a total of 4.6 million vehicles sold for the year, marking an 8% increase year-on-year [7]. - Export Growth: Exports reached 133,000 vehicles in December, representing a 133% increase year-on-year, with a total of 1.05 million vehicles exported for the year [7]. - Brand Performance: The Dynasty series sold 188,500 vehicles in 2025, while the Ocean series achieved 222,000 vehicles sold [7]. Market Outlook - Product Cycle: A new product cycle is expected to begin in March 2026, with the launch of the upgraded Qin L DM-i model, which is anticipated to enhance market share and brand value [7]. - Sales Projections: Future sales are projected to reach 5.27 million vehicles in 2026 and 5.85 million in 2027, with corresponding revenue growth [7].