瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20260106

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro sentiment is positive, and industrial products mainly rose during the day. V2605 rose 3.38% to close at 4,919 yuan/ton. Recently, the production facilities of Hanwha Ningbo and Xinpu Chemical restarted, leading to a sequential increase in PVC capacity utilization. However, the operating rate of downstream PVC products decreased sequentially, including those of pipes and profiles. The social inventory of PVC has slightly accumulated at a high level. The costs of calcium carbide-based and ethylene-based processes have declined, and the profits have slightly recovered. The impact of the maintenance of chlor-alkali plants in January is seasonally weak, with few existing maintenance plans, so the industry's operating rate is expected to remain at a relatively high level. The terminal real estate and infrastructure are in the low-season, and the operating rates of hard products such as pipes and profiles may continue to decline. The overseas market is highly competitive, and exports have limited boosting effects. The market is trading on the expectations of "anti-involution" and incremental policies in 2026, resulting in a valuation repair of the PVC futures, with the spot price at a discount to the main contract. Amid the game between weak reality and strong expectations, the PVC futures are expected to fluctuate widely, with the daily range estimated to be around 4,720 - 5,000 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4,919 yuan/ton, a sequential increase of 155 yuan/ton; the trading volume was 1,740,594 lots, a sequential increase of 970,429 lots; and the open interest was 1,026,198 lots, a sequential increase of 68,221 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 985,727 lots; the short positions were 1,064,508 lots, a sequential increase of 57,356 lots; and the net long positions were -78,781 lots, a sequential increase of 1,492 lots [3]. 3.2现货市场 - In the East China region, the price of ethylene-based PVC was 4,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide-based PVC was 4,492.69 yuan/ton, a sequential decrease of 13.08 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of ethylene-based PVC was 4,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide-based PVC was 4,543.75 yuan/ton, a sequential decrease of 19.38 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China was 640 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 600 US dollars/ton, unchanged; and the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 660 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was -319 yuan/ton, a sequential decrease of 55 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2,606.67 yuan/ton, unchanged; and in Northwest China, it was 2,415 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was -150 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East was 407 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 448 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East was 189 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 194 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The operating rate of PVC was 78.63%, a sequential increase of 1.4%; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 78.36%, a sequential decrease of 0.13%; and the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 79.29%, a sequential increase of 5.01%. The total social inventory of PVC was 52.52 tons, a sequential increase of 1.14 tons; the total social inventory in the East China region was 48.06 tons, a sequential increase of 1.15 tons; and the total social inventory in the South China region was 4.46 tons, a sequential decrease of 0.01 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The National Housing Climate Index was 91.9, a sequential decrease of 0.53. The cumulative value of newly started housing area was 53,456.7 million square meters, a sequential increase of 4,395.31 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 656,066.2 million square meters, a sequential increase of 3,127.17 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 420.2457 billion yuan, a sequential increase of 30.416 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 22.76%, a sequential increase of 0.08%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 17.31%, a sequential increase of 0.11%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 17.09%, a sequential decrease of 0.58%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 17.1%, a sequential decrease of 0.57% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From December 27 to January 2, the operating rate of PVC plants increased by 1.4% sequentially to 78.63%. From December 27 to January 2, the operating rate of PVC downstream decreased by 0.58% sequentially to 43.94%, among which the operating rate of pipes decreased by 0.6% sequentially to 35.6%, and the operating rate of profiles decreased by 0.79% sequentially to 29.78%. As of January 2, the social inventory of PVC was 107.67 tons, a sequential increase of 1.46% [2]. 3.8 Cost and Profit - As of January 2, the weekly cost of calcium carbide - based PVC was 5,011.17 yuan/ton, a sequential decrease of 0.14%; the weekly cost of ethylene - based PVC was 5,008.38 yuan/ton, a sequential decrease of 0.57%. The profit of calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 46.74 yuan/ton sequentially to - 713.56 yuan/ton; the profit of ethylene - based PVC increased by 56.36 yuan/ton sequentially to - 279.49 yuan/ton [2].