瑞达期货沪镍产业日报-20260106

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai nickel will make a strong adjustment in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the support of MA5 [4] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 139,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5,700 yuan/ton; the 02 - 03 month contract spread of Shanghai nickel is - 220 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 110 yuan/ton [3] - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 17,290 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 530 US dollars/ton; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 131,481 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 3,248 lots [3] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 49,943 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 4,234 lots; the LME nickel inventory is 255,354 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 72 tons [3] - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 45,544 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1,090 tons; the LME nickel cancelled warrants are 12,432 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 12 tons [3] - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 39,388 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 964 tons [3] Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 143,450 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5,300 yuan/ton; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 143,550 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5,500 yuan/ton [3] - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, with no month - on - month change; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, with no month - on - month change [3] - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,250 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan/ton; the basis of the NI main contract is 3,650 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 400 yuan/ton [3] - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 151.78 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 8.1 US dollars/ton [3] Upstream Situation - The import volume of nickel ore is 3.3395 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.3433 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 13.3203 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.4444 million tons [3] - The average import unit price of nickel ore is 72.18 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 14.84 US dollars/ton; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, with no month - on - month change [3] Industry Situation - The electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1,120 tons; the total nickel - iron output is 22,100 metal tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 800 metal tons [3] - The import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 12,840.49 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2,900.84 tons; the import volume of nickel - iron is 895,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 9,700 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7617 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 38,300 tons; the total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 553,800 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 8,700 tons [3] Industry News - China's RatingDog service industry PMI in December 2025 was 52, maintaining expansion, but new export orders fell back into contraction. The current expansion period has continued for three years [3] - Li Qiang emphasized strengthening the dominant position of enterprises in innovation and promoting the accelerated iteration and upgrading of new technologies and products such as robots and drones in the process of expanding applications [3] - Trump warned Venezuela's "interim president" and said that Venezuela might not be the last country for US intervention, and reiterated the need for Greenland [3] - The US ISM manufacturing index in December decreased slightly from 48.2 to 47.9, remaining below 50 for 10 consecutive months. New orders have contracted for the fourth consecutive month, and export orders are still weak; the index was mainly dragged down by the accelerating decline in inventory [3] Viewpoint Summary - In the macro - aspect, China's service industry PMI maintained expansion, while the US manufacturing PMI continued to decline. In the fundamental aspect, the import volume of nickel ore is in a downward trend, and Indonesia plans to cut quotas, causing concerns about raw material supply [3] - On the smelting side, the nickel - iron output in Indonesia remains high, and the quantity flowing back to China is expected to increase. Although some production has been cut due to raw material shortages and profit losses, the output is still at a high level, and cost support has increased [3] - On the demand side, the cost of nickel - iron for stainless steel has decreased, the profit of steel mills has improved, and the production is expected to remain at a high level. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, and ternary batteries contribute a small incremental demand [3] - The domestic nickel inventory is on an upward trend, and the market mainly buys on dips. The spot premium is at a high level, and the growth of overseas LME inventory has slowed down. Technically, the position increases and the price rises, with a strong bullish atmosphere [3]