瑞达期货国债期货日报-20260106

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On January 6, 2026, most yields of treasury bond cash bonds weakened, and treasury bond futures declined across the board. The central bank continued to conduct net withdrawals, and the weighted average rate of DR007 rebounded to around 1.43%. In December, the central bank's net investment through treasury bond trading was 500 million yuan, lower than market expectations. Domestically, the official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs in December both rebounded and returned above the boom - bust line. Overseas, the US raid on Venezuela and the arrest of Maduro caused geopolitical shocks. The Fed's December meeting minutes indicated a divergence among officials, with most expecting looser monetary policy in the future if inflation declines as expected. Overall, the rebound in December's manufacturing PMI suggests a possible marginal improvement in economic indicators. The new regulations on fund redemptions have relaxed requirements for bond funds, alleviating market concerns and reducing redemption pressure. Interest rates may enter a phased repair window but are still subject to the suppression of a strong equity market and the supply pressure of government bonds in the first quarter. It is expected that interest rates will continue to fluctuate in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Futures Market - Futures Prices: On January 6, 2026, the closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main - contracts decreased by 0.13%, 0.11%, 0.05%, and 0.31% respectively [2]. - Futures Trading Volume: The trading volumes of T, TS, and TL main - contracts increased by 1165, 4332, and 14958 respectively, while the trading volume of TF main - contract decreased by 327 [2]. - Futures Price Spreads: Most price spreads showed an upward trend [2]. - Futures Positions: The positions of T, TF, and TL main - contracts increased by 3499, 3110, and 3705 respectively, while the position of TS main - contract decreased by 1428. The net short positions of T, TF, and TS decreased by 3807, 701, and 2250 respectively, while the net short position of TL increased by 639 [2]. 3.2 Cash Bond Market - CTD Bonds: The net prices of most CTD bonds declined [2]. - Active Treasury Bonds: The yields of 1 - 10 - year active treasury bonds all increased, with increases ranging from 0.25bp to 1.38bp [2]. 3.3 Interest Rates - Short - Term Interest Rates: The silver - pledged overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day interest rates were 1.2435%, 1.4057%, and 1.4300% respectively. Shibor overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day interest rates were 1.2630%, 1.4220%, and 1.4650% respectively. The silver - pledged overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day interest rates decreased by 0.65bp, 3.43bp, and 1.00bp respectively, Shibor overnight and 7 - day interest rates decreased by 0.10bp, and Shibor 14 - day interest rate increased by 0.80bp [2]. - LPR Rates: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2]. 3.4 Open Market Operations - On January 6, 2026, the issuance scale of open - market operations was 16.2 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 312.5 billion yuan, and the net withdrawal was 296.3 billion yuan. The interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day operations [2]. 3.5 Industry News - In December 2025, the central bank had a net investment of 500 million yuan through open - market treasury bond trading, 1000 million yuan through MLF, and a net investment of 71 million yuan through SLF [2]. - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to allocate over 100 billion yuan in funds to support Yangtze River protection projects and will establish a unified cross - regional ecological compensation mechanism in the Yangtze River mainstream [2]. - On January 5, local time, Venezuelan President Maduro was arrested by the US and pleaded "not guilty" in court. The UN Security Council held an emergency meeting, and China called on the US to ensure Maduro's safety and resolve the issue through dialogue [3]. 3.6 Key Events to Watch - January 7, 18:00, Eurozone CPI preliminary value for December 2025 - January 9, 21:30, US seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls for December 2025 [5]