瑞达期货不锈钢产业日报-20260106

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the text 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The raw material supply of nickel iron is expected to shrink. Nickel mines in the Philippines face seasonal challenges, and Indonesia plans to cut RKAB quotas, leading to potential production cuts in nickel - iron. Although the production profit of stainless - steel plants has improved, the supply pressure remains due to limited actual production decline. The downstream demand is entering the off - season, and the export volume of stainless steel is decreasing, resulting in low market purchasing willingness. However, the social inventory of stainless steel in the country is seasonally decreasing slightly. Technically, the stainless - steel futures price is expected to adjust strongly, with attention on the upper resistance level at 13,600 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 13,395 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 320 yuan/ton. The 02 - 03 contract spread is - 110 yuan/ton, with a change from - 8983 yuan/ton. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 13,457 lots, an increase of 2,821 lots. The main contract position is 63,161 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 47,387 tons, a decrease of 6 tons [2] 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,800 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 50 yuan/ton. The market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of stainless steel is 345 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 225 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly nickel - iron production is 22,100 metal tons, a decrease of 800 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 12,840.49 tons, an increase of 2,900.84 tons. The monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 895,400 tons, a decrease of 97,000 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 143,450 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 5,300 yuan/ton. The average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) in the country is 930 yuan/nickel point, a daily increase of 10 yuan/nickel point. The monthly chromium - iron production in China is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7617 million tons, a decrease of 38,300 tons. The weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 553,800 tons, a decrease of 8,700 tons. The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 534.567 million square meters, an increase of 43.9531 million square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 33,600 units, an increase of 2,700 units. The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 22,600 units, an increase of 700 units. The monthly output of small tractors is 9,000 units, unchanged [2] Industry News - China's December RatingDog service industry PMI was 52, maintaining expansion, but new export orders fell back into contraction. The current expansion period has lasted for three years. Li Qiang emphasized strengthening the dominant position of enterprise innovation and promoting the iterative upgrading of new technologies and products such as robots and drones. Trump issued a warning to Venezuela's "interim president". The US December ISM manufacturing index slightly decreased from 48.2 to 47.9, remaining below 50 for 10 consecutive months [2]