瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20260106

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall production of methanol has increased due to the fact that the production capacity loss from recent domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts is less than the production capacity output from recovery. With an increase in market supply, downstream raw material inventories are at a high level, leading to a decrease in purchasing enthusiasm. Inland projects continue to operate stably, and last week, inland enterprises' inventories increased, with short - term supply being relatively abundant. Against this backdrop, the weakening demand expectations in winter are not conducive to the upstream production end's shipping rhythm, and inventory is expected to maintain an overall increasing trend. [2] - Last week, methanol port inventories continued to accumulate. Although the提货 in the mainstream storage areas along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu remained good, inventories increased due to more unloading. In Zhejiang, demand was stable, and inventories also increased. There is an expected decrease in imports in January, and port methanol inventories may decline from their high levels. [2] - Last week, most enterprises' devices were operating stably. Due to some devices in the northwest still being in a load - reducing state, the operating rate of the domestic methanol - to - olefins industry decreased slightly. In the short term, the load of MTO enterprises in East China may still decrease, but the MTO device of Qinghai Salt Lake is planned to restart, so there is an expectation of an increase in the industry's operating rate. The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2350 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2293 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 78; the 5 - 9 spread of methanol is 53 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 10. [2] - The trading volume of the main methanol contract is 824,536 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 50,952; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders for methanol is - 128,251 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 21,279. [2] - The number of methanol warehouse receipts is 8,205, with a week - on - week increase of 1,557. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2250 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 40; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1847.5 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10. [2] - The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 362.5 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 43 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 38. [2] - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 262 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 320 US dollars/ton, with no change. [2] - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 255 euros/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 58 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.49 US dollars/million British thermal units, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.15. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 1.0471 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 39,800 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 430,300 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 25,100 tons. [2] - The import profit of methanol is - 10.15 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 1.4176 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 195,000 tons. [2] - The inventory of inland enterprises is 422,600 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 18,600 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 90.31%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.93%. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 38.24%, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.19; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 3.6%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.49. [2] - The operating rate of acetic acid is 80.3%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.71; the operating rate of MTBE is 68.01%, with no change. [2] - The operating rate of olefins is 87.46%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.8; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 1256 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 141. [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 16.39%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.02; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol is 15.44%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.04. [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 19.47%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.38; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol is 19.47%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.38. [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of December 31st, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 422,600 tons, an increase of 18,600 tons from the previous period, with a week - on - week increase of 4.61%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 183,000 tons, a decrease of 10,600 tons from the previous period, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.48%. [2] - As of December 31st, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.4774 million tons, an increase of 6,490 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China increased by 39,800 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 25,100 tons. Methanol port inventories continued to accumulate this week. [2] - As of December 31st, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 88.66%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.02%. Most enterprises' plants were operating stably, but due to some plants in the northwest still being in a load - reducing state, the weekly average industry operating rate decreased slightly. [2]