瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20260106

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term SH2603 is expected to show a fluctuating trend, with attention on the support around 2090 and the resistance around 2260 [3][4] - The spot supply and demand of liquid caustic soda remain generally loose, and the purchase and market prices of the 32% liquid caustic soda main product in Shandong have declined recently [3] - The planned maintenance capacity of chlor - alkali in January is small, and the previously shut - down devices are restarting one after another. Domestic chlor - alkali devices are expected to maintain a high - operation state [3] - The operating load of alumina enterprises will basically remain stable in the short term, and non - aluminum downstream may maintain rigid procurement with little change [3] - Although the profit of Shandong chlor - alkali has narrowed due to the decline in caustic soda prices, it is still in a theoretical profit state [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract is 2194 yuan/ton, and the position volume of the main caustic soda contract is 159,963 hands, with a decrease of 15,593 hands [3] - The net position of the top 20 in futures is - 14,547 hands, and the trading volume of the main caustic soda contract is 344,227 hands, with an increase of 30,386 hands [3] - The closing price of the January caustic soda contract is 1970 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the May caustic soda contract is 2330 yuan/ton, with an increase of 27 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 690 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu is 780 yuan/ton [3] - The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2156.25 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 38 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 30 [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 250 yuan/ton, and in the Northwest is 220 yuan/ton [3] - The price of steam coal is 642 yuan/ton [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 250 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu is 225 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 25 [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 12,900 yuan/ton, and the spot price of alumina is 2600 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 10 [3] 3.6 Industry News - From December 27 to January 2, China's caustic soda capacity utilization rate was 86.4%, a week - on - week increase of 0.4% [3] - From December 27 to January 2, the alumina operating rate decreased by 0.47% week - on - week to 84.67%, the viscose staple fiber operating rate decreased by 1.61% week - on - week to 85.42%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 0.47% week - on - week to 60.81% [3] - As of January 2, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories was 485,700 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 9.84% [3] - From December 25 to January 4, the weekly average profit of Shandong chlor - alkali was 153 yuan/ton, a decrease compared with the previous period [3]