瑞达期货沪锡产业日报-20260106

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The China's RatingDog Services PMI in December 2025 was 52, maintaining expansion, but new export orders fell back into contraction. The ISM Manufacturing PMI in the US in December unexpectedly recorded the largest contraction since 2024, dragged down by inventories [3]. - On the supply side, the domestic tin ore import supply remains relatively tight, and tin ore processing fees stay at a low level. Although the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply of tin ore, the supply in other regions is still highly unstable. The overall tin ore import volume is still at a low level. In the smelting sector, the current shortage of tin ore raw materials and low raw material inventories in most enterprises mean that most enterprises are in a loss - making situation. It is expected that refined tin production will continue to be restricted and lack year - on - year growth. In terms of imports, the significant increase in Indonesia's export volume in November alleviated concerns about supply restrictions in Indonesia. The recent repair of import losses means that if the import window opens, the import supply pressure will increase significantly [3]. - On the demand side, the recent high - level correction of tin prices has improved the market's willingness to purchase on opportunity, leading to a slight decline in inventory and a spot premium of 400 yuan/ton. LME inventory has increased significantly, and the spot premium is volatile. Technically, with the increase in positions and the rise in prices, the bullish sentiment has improved. It is expected that Shanghai tin will have a short - term strong adjustment, with attention on the 34 support level and a test of the historical high of 35 [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin was 348,820 yuan/ton, with a change of 14,450. The closing price of the February - March contract of Shanghai tin was 2,758 yuan/ton with a change of 70, and the price of LME 3 - month tin was 42,466 US dollars/ton, with a change of 2,216. The position of the main contract of Shanghai tin was 41,195 lots, and the net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin was - 2,355 lots, with a change of 761 [3]. - LME tin total inventory was 5,415 tons (unchanged), Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) tin inventory was 7,936 tons (a decrease of 541 tons week - on - week), LME tin cancelled warrants were 160 tons (unchanged), and SHFE tin warehouse receipts were 7,086 tons (a decrease of 259 tons) [3]. 现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price was 341,050 yuan/ton, with an increase of 9,450, and the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market 1 tin spot price was 342,520 yuan/ton, with an increase of 8,470. The basis of the main Shanghai tin contract was - 2,770 yuan/ton, with a change of - 6,300, and the LME tin cash - to - 3 - month spread was - 30.01 US dollars/ton, with a change of - 29.01 [3]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 1.16 million tons, with an increase of 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate was 329,050 yuan/ton, with an increase of 9,450, and its processing fee was 10,500 yuan/ton (unchanged). The average price of 60% tin concentrate was 333,050 yuan/ton, with an increase of 9,450, and its processing fee was 6,500 yuan/ton (unchanged) [3]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons, and the monthly import volume of refined tin was 983.25 tons, a decrease of 518.38 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu was 218,310 yuan/ton, with an increase of 5,960. The cumulative monthly output of tinplate (strip) was 1.3901 million tons, with an increase of 0.1447 million tons, and the monthly export volume of tinplate was 222,600 tons, with an increase of 25,000 tons [3]. Industry News - In December 2025, China's services activities continued to expand, and this expansion period has lasted for three years. Li Qiang proposed to strengthen the dominant position of enterprise innovation and promote the iterative upgrading of new technologies and products such as robots and drones. Trump warned the "interim president" of Venezuela, and also mentioned that Venezuela may not be the last country to be intervened by the US and reiterated the need for Greenland. The US ISM Manufacturing Index in December decreased slightly from 48.2 to 47.9, remaining below 50 for 10 consecutive months [3].