Changjiang Securities·2026-01-06 09:07Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the sodium-ion battery industry [9] Core Insights - The sodium-ion battery technology has regained attention due to fluctuations in lithium prices and strategic moves by leading manufacturers, transitioning from a "technology reserve" to "scale commercialization" [5][17] - The sodium-ion battery benefits from low cost, abundant resources, and compatibility with industrialization factors, making it a promising new technology route [6][39] - The industry consensus has shifted from viewing sodium-ion batteries as substitutes for lithium-ion batteries to recognizing them as important complements [8] Summary by Sections Cost Drivers - Current cost estimates for sodium-ion battery materials are as follows: copper-iron-manganese system at 296.6 CNY/kWh, nickel-iron-manganese system at 398.1 CNY/kWh, and sodium iron phosphate system at 379.3 CNY/kWh, which are near the cost balance point of lithium iron phosphate [6][40] - The economic viability of sodium-ion batteries is enhanced by not using high-cost metals like lithium carbonate and copper, with estimated economic balance points depending on copper prices [41] Scene Expansion - Sodium-ion batteries are entering a phase of deep industrialization, expanding from niche applications to widespread market penetration, particularly in low-temperature and high-power scenarios [7][45] - They are positioned as cost-effective alternatives in applications where energy density is less critical, such as battery swapping and low-speed electric vehicles [7][45] - The technology is expected to play a significant role in the electric two-wheeler market and energy storage systems due to its cost advantages and resource endowment [7][45] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the material segments of the sodium-ion battery supply chain, such as sodium-ion cathodes and aluminum foils, which are expected to see incremental expansion [8]