——2026年CFETS新权重简评：五问CFETS权重调整

Group 1: CFETS Index Overview - The CFETS RMB Exchange Rate Index is a nominal basket currency index based on trade shares, using geometric averaging of the RMB against a basket of currencies[2] - The currency basket is adjusted annually based on trade data from two years prior, with the new weights effective from January 1, 2026, based on 2024 trade data[3] Group 2: Weight Adjustments and Trends - The new weights for 2026 align closely with the 2024 trade shares, with the USD weight at 18.31% and the EUR weight at 17.86%, both exceeding their respective trade share benchmarks by 1.07 and 1.69 percentage points[4] - The concentration of the top five currencies (USD, EUR, JPY, KRW, AUD) has declined for four consecutive years, reaching 58.15% in 2026, down from 66.03% in 2020, averaging a decline of 1.31 percentage points per year[4][19] - The weight of developed market currencies has decreased from 76.97% in 2020 to 69.56% in 2026, while emerging market currencies have increased from 23.03% to 30.44%[5][26] Group 3: Currency Weight Changes - The USD weight has dropped from 19.88% in 2022 to 18.31% in 2026, with an average annual reduction of approximately 0.51 percentage points from 2024 to 2026[5][30] - Among emerging market currencies, ASEAN, Middle Eastern, and Russian currencies have the highest weights, collectively accounting for 19.29% of the emerging market currency weight in 2026[6][32] Group 4: Future Implications - The trade share data from 2025 will guide the currency weight adjustments for 2027, indicating a potential continued decline in the concentration of the top five currencies[7] - The influence coefficient of the USD index on the USDCNY midpoint has decreased from 0.337 to 0.331, indicating reduced depreciation pressure on the RMB against the USD[8][47]