瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20260106

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - On Tuesday, the RB2605 contract first declined and then rebounded. In terms of macro - aspects, in 2025, mergers and acquisitions in the steel industry were frequent, and many enterprises optimized their layouts through equity acquisitions and asset swaps, with regional integration accelerating. In terms of supply - demand, the weekly output of rebar increased slightly with a capacity utilization rate of 40.42%; the apparent demand declined, and the inventory continued to be depleted. Overall, in the consumption off - season, the terminal demand for rebar decreased, while the output was at a low level. The larger reduction in short positions of mainstream holdings supported the rebound of the futures price. Technically, for the RB2605 contract, the 1 - hour MACD indicator shows that DIFF and DEA are running below the 0 - axis, and the green bar is shrinking. It is recommended for short - term trading and attention should be paid to risk control [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,111.00 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the trading volume was 1,562,948 lots, up 14,597 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 3,952 lots, up 18,860 lots; the spread between the RB5 - 10 contracts was - 45 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the daily warehouse receipt of the RB on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 78,444 tons, unchanged; the spread between the HC2605 - RB2605 contracts was 152 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,310.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,395 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,490.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,150.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the basis of the RB main contract was 199.00 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was - 10.00 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 802.00 yuan/wet ton, down 7.00 yuan; the price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port (FOB) was 1,540.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,160.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billets in Hebei was 2,930.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 158.6194 million tons, up 3.538 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 486,000 tons, down 13,700 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.4383 million tons, up 14,300 tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan was 1.2661 million tons, up 86,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.96%, up 0.66%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 85.28%, up 0.32%; the output of rebar at sample steel mills was 1.8439 million tons, up 27,100 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills was 40.42%, up 0.59%; the inventory of rebar at sample steel mills was 1.4006 million tons, up 5,200 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 2.9419 million tons, down 188,100 tons; the operating rate of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills was 69.79%, up 2.08%; the monthly output of crude steel in China was 69.87 million tons, down 2.13 million tons; the monthly output of rebar in China was 1.434 million tons, up 59,000 tons; the net export volume of steel products was 948,000 tons, up 20,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index was 91.90, down 0.52; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 2.60%, down 0.90%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment was - 15.90%, down 1.20%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was - 1.10%, down 1.00%; the cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.56066 billion square meters, down 31.27 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 534.57 million square meters, down 43.95 million square meters; the area of unsold commercial housing was 393.61 million square meters, up 2.84 million square meters. From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.3394 million square meters, with a month - on - month decrease of 20.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.9% [2] 3.6 Industry News - Hebei Provincial Party Committee drafted the "Interim Measures for Reporting and Rewarding Illegal New Steel Production Capacity in Hebei Province (Draft for Comment)" to encourage public participation in preventing and combating illegal new steel production capacity and strengthen the investigation and crackdown on such behavior, and is now soliciting public comments [2]