PVC日报：震荡上行-20260106

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a wait - and - see approach for PVC [1] Core Viewpoints - The PVC industry has a complex situation with increasing supply, weak demand, high inventory, and a slow - recovering real estate market. Given these factors, it is advisable to wait and see [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The upstream calcium carbide price in the northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate increased by 1.40 percentage points to 78.63%, being at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream operating rate decreased by 0.58 percentage points, and downstream product orders are poor. Last week, export orders decreased slightly, with lower prices in the Indian market and limited demand. CFR India and CFR Southeast Asia decreased by $20/ton and $30/ton respectively. Social inventory continued to increase and is still high. The real estate market is in the adjustment stage with large year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, etc., and it will take time to improve. New production capacity has been added, and although there is an anti - "involution" sentiment, the current production decline is limited, and futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level. January is the traditional off - season for domestic PVC demand [1] Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2605 contract increased in volume and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 4,785 yuan/ton, a maximum of 4,935 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 4,919 yuan/ton, up 3.38%. The position increased by 68,221 lots to 1,026,198 lots [2] - On January 6, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China rose to 4,580 yuan/ton, and the V2605 contract futures closing price was 4,919 yuan/ton. The current basis is - 339 yuan/ton, weakening by 12 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, devices such as Jiangsu Xinpu and Ningbo Hanwha resumed production, and the PVC operating rate increased by 1.40 percentage points to 78.63%, at a neutral level in recent years. New production capacities of Wanhua Chemical (500,000 tons/year), Tianjin Bohua (400,000 tons/year), Qingdao Gulf (200,000 tons/year), Gansu Yaowang (300,000 tons/year) were put into production in the second half of the year, and Jiaxing Jiahua (300,000 tons/year) started trial production in December [4] - On the demand side, the real estate market is in the adjustment stage. From January to November 2025, national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The sales area of commercial housing was 787.02 million square meters, a decrease of 7.8%, and the sales volume was 751.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.1%. The new construction area was 534.57 million square meters, a decrease of 20.5%. The construction area was 6,560.66 million square meters, a decrease of 9.6%. The completion area was 394.54 million square meters, a decrease of 18.0%. As of the week of January 4, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 26.09% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in recent years [5] - In terms of inventory, as of the week of December 31, PVC social inventory increased by 1.45% week - on - week to 1.0766 million tons, 36.24% higher than the same period last year. Social inventory continued to increase and is still high [6]