沪铜日报：谨慎回调-20260106

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the copper industry is "Cautious about a pullback". [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand tight - balance logic drives copper prices to continue rising, but sharp increases may lead to a phased pullback. In the medium to long - term, the copper price trend is bullish. [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - On January 2, 2026, the Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile went on strike, with expected production dropping by 70%. After entering 2026, copper smelters can't profit from long - term contracts, and the spot market is weakly stable. By - products like sulfuric acid and gold are the main profit points if there is no production cut. In December 2025, SMM China's electrolytic copper production increased by 7.5 tons month - on - month (6.8%) and 7.54% year - on - year. The cumulative production from January to December increased by 137.20 tons year - on - year (11.38%). [1] - Downstream copper products are mostly in the year - end accounting period. After the continuous rise of copper prices, procurement is cautious. The copper foil market has stronger demand than other copper products due to the hot terminal market. AI computing power and technology concepts support copper prices. Whether the new energy vehicle market is affected by the purchase tax and its impact on the raw material end need to be monitored. [1] - Geopolitical conflicts in Venezuela boost market risk - aversion sentiment and the demand expectation for copper. Mine accidents intensify concerns about the supply side. [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened and closed higher, rising during the day. [4] - Spot: The spot premium in East China is - 255 yuan/ton, and in South China is - 180 yuan/ton. On December 29, 2025, the LME official price was 12,269.5 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was + 36.5 US dollars/ton. [4] 3. Supply - side Situation - As of January 5, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) is - 44.96 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.58 US cents/pound. [7] - SHFE copper inventory is 93,300 tons, an increase of 2,989 tons from the previous period. Shanghai bonded - area copper inventory is 100,800 tons, an increase of 4,800 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 146,100 tons, an increase of 3,525 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 503,400 short tons, an increase of 3,532 short tons from the previous period. [10]