有色金属行业2026年度信用风险展望（2025年12月）

Investment Rating - The report indicates that the credit risk outlook for the non-ferrous metals industry is expected to remain stable overall, but with notable structural pressures [4][44]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry is significantly influenced by macroeconomic demand, serving as a foundational material for industrial manufacturing, infrastructure, real estate, and emerging industries [5][6]. - The global economic environment has been characterized by "weak growth, high volatility, and multiple risks," impacting the performance of major commodities differently [4][6]. - In 2025, the asset scale of non-ferrous metal enterprises expanded, driven by strategic resource development and sustained demand from emerging industries [4][15]. - The profitability and cash flow metrics of sample enterprises in the non-ferrous metals sector have shown significant variability, with median profit totals and operating cash flow below average levels [20][19]. - The industry has seen an increase in bond financing, with a concentration of issuers rated AAA and AA+, primarily consisting of state-owned and strong private enterprises [34][32]. Industry Fundamentals - The non-ferrous metals sector's development is closely tied to macroeconomic demand, with the global economy exhibiting complex dynamics that affect trade and pricing [5][6]. - The industry has experienced structural differentiation, with resource-based and processing enterprises facing distinct opportunities and challenges [5][6]. Industry Performance - Since 2025, the non-ferrous metals industry has faced a "high-low, fluctuating downward" trend due to external shocks such as tariffs and domestic real estate sector challenges [7][8]. - The prices of major metals have shown divergence, with gold and copper prices supported by safe-haven demand and emerging market needs, while aluminum prices have remained stable [8][7]. Financial Status - As of November 2025, the non-ferrous metals industry had 53 active entities, with 44 selected as sample enterprises for analysis [11][13]. - The total asset value of sample enterprises increased by 9.40% to 87,939.47 billion yuan by the end of September 2025, driven by rising metal prices and expanding business scales [15][14]. - Profitability indicators have fluctuated, with average profit totals and operating cash flow metrics showing significant growth in 2025, despite challenges in processing fees [19][20]. Leverage Levels - The overall leverage level in the non-ferrous metals industry is moderate, but some enterprises have seen rapid increases in debt due to aggressive expansion [24][25]. - By the end of September 2025, the average debt-to-asset ratio for sample enterprises was 60.22%, with some companies exceeding 70% [25][24]. Debt Servicing Capacity - The industry has shown good performance in debt servicing indicators, although cash-to-short-term debt ratios have declined significantly [27][28]. - The average cash-to-short-term debt ratio fell to 0.26 by September 2025, indicating reduced cash reserves among enterprises [30][28]. Bond Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals industry has seen active bond issuance in 2025, with no significant defaults reported, although some credit ratings have been downgraded [32][33]. - A total of 43 enterprises issued bonds amounting to 1,939.26 billion yuan, with AAA-rated issuers dominating the market [35][34].