NORTHEAST SECURITIES·2026-01-06 11:12Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperforming the Market" [5] Core Insights - Gold prices have reached new highs, with COMEX gold surpassing $4,500 per ounce, and a projected increase of 63% for the entire year of 2025. Domestic brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Pu have seen their gold prices rise to around 1,400 RMB per gram [1][13] - The new VAT policy effective from November has reduced the input tax deduction rate from 13% to 6%, putting pressure on both costs and demand for domestic gold jewelry brands. This has led to a shift from "seeking scale" to "improving quality and efficiency" [1][14] - Major brands such as Lao Pu, Jun Pei, and Chow Tai Fook have entered a cycle of frequent and significant price increases, with high-end fixed-price products seeing price hikes of 10%-30% multiple times throughout the year [1][15] Summary by Sections Gold Price Trends and Brand Pricing Strategies - The gold price reached a new high of $4,546.2 per ounce on December 26, 2025, marking a 63% increase from the beginning of the year. Domestic gold jewelry prices have also surged, with average retail prices rising from 805 RMB per gram to around 1,410 RMB [13][14] - Major brands have implemented multiple price adjustments throughout 2025, with Lao Pu leading the way. The average price increase across top brands has ranged from 30% to 60% [15][19] Inventory and Turnover Analysis - Chow Tai Fook has the largest inventory, while Lao Pu has seen a significant increase in stock levels. Other brands have shown stable growth, with Lao Feng Xiang notably reducing inventory [2][26] - Inventory turnover rates have generally declined, but brands like Chao Hong Ji and Cai Bai have seen significant improvements year-on-year [2][26] Key Company Announcements and Industry News - Six brands, including Liu Fu Group and Kid King, reported substantial profit increases, with Liu Fu's profit rising by 44.1% to 600 million HKD [2][28] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance announced a new policy for large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods exchange, with a subsidy of up to 15% on the first batch of 625 billion RMB in special bonds [2][31] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality jewelry brands such as Lao Pu and Chao Hong Ji, which have a strong brand presence and craftsmanship barriers. The long-term outlook for gold prices remains bullish due to ongoing central bank purchases and a favorable interest rate environment [3][33]