沥青日报：震荡运行-20260106

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate significantly in the near term. Given the uncertainties, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach and closely monitor the situation in Venezuela [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情分析 - Last week, the asphalt operating rate dropped 3.9 percentage points to 27.4% week - on - week, 2.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In January 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2 million tons, a decrease of 158,000 tons (7.3%) month - on - month and 276,000 tons (12.1%) year - on - year [1]. - The operating rates of downstream asphalt industries were mostly stable last week. The road asphalt operating rate remained at 20% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather. The high - price transactions of low - sulfur asphalt in Northeast China were sluggish, and refinery shipments decreased. The national shipments decreased 3.22% to 263,100 tons week - on - week [1]. - The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased week - on - week and was near the lowest level in recent years. The US military attack on Venezuela may affect the production and cost of domestic asphalt. The asphalt operating rate will remain low this week. The rigid demand in the north will further slow down, but the winter storage demand continues to be released. The overall demand in the south is average [1]. 3.2期现行情 - Today, the asphalt futures 2602 contract fell 0.35% to 3,144 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,129 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,184 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 14,755 to 80,682 lots [2]. 3.3基差方面 - The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3,070 yuan/ton. The basis of the asphalt 02 contract dropped to - 74 yuan/ton, at a relatively low - to - neutral level [3]. 3.4基本面跟踪 - On the supply side, Zhongyou Gaofu stopped production for maintenance, and Jinling Petrochemical switched production. The asphalt operating rate dropped 3.9 percentage points to 27.4% week - on - week, 2.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year [4]. - From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased 5.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased 0.1 percentage point compared with that from January to October 2025 but was still negative. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry from January to November 2025 was - 4.7%, a slight decline from - 4.3% from January to October 2025 [4]. - As of the week of January 2, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries were mostly stable. The road asphalt operating rate remained at 20% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather. From January to November 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of the social financing stock was 8.5%, the same as that from January to October [4]. - As of the week of January 2, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased 0.7 percentage points to 12.9% compared with the week of December 26 and was near the lowest level in recent years [4].