每日核心期货品种分析-20260106

Report Overview - The report is a daily analysis of core futures varieties, released on January 6, 2025, covering various commodities in the domestic futures market [3]. Market Performance Futures Market Summary - As of the close on January 6, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose. Lithium carbonate hit the daily limit, silver futures rose over 7%, platinum over 6%, palladium over 5%, and tin, copper, international copper, and nickel futures rose over 4%. PVC, aluminum, methanol, and apple futures rose over 3%. In terms of declines, plywood fell over 1%, and coke and logs declined slightly. Stock index futures generally rose, while treasury bond futures mostly fell. In terms of capital flow, silver 2604, CSI 2603, and SSE 50 2603 had capital inflows, while gold 2602, apple 2605, and crude oil 2602 had outflows [6][7]. Commodity Analysis Copper - A strike at a Canadian copper mine in Chile is expected to cut production by 70%. In 2026, copper smelters face profit challenges in long - term contracts, with by - products like sulfuric acid and gold becoming key profit sources. China's electrolytic copper production in 2024 increased both monthly and annually. Demand from downstream copper products is mixed, with the copper foil market being strong. Geopolitical factors and supply - demand dynamics support copper prices in the long - term, but short - term corrections are possible [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate rose sharply and hit the limit due to positive news, including price increases by two phosphate - iron - lithium companies. However, the supply - demand structure remains unchanged, with production increasing in December 2025 and downstream demand contracting. The market is in a stage of strong expectations but weak reality, so a price drop should be guarded against [11]. Crude Oil - OPEC+ decided to maintain the output plan in February and March 2026. The US crude oil inventory decreased more than expected, but refined oil inventory increased. The US production is at a high level. Geopolitical factors, such as the US - Venezuela conflict and the EU's sanctions on Russia, bring uncertainties. The market is in a supply - surplus situation, but geopolitical events may stimulate price hikes [12][13]. Asphalt - The asphalt production rate declined last week, and the January 2026 production plan is lower than the previous month and the same period last year. The downstream demand is affected by funds and weather. The US military action in Venezuela may affect the supply of heavy oil for domestic refineries. The price is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [14][16]. PP - The downstream PP operating rate is at a low level, and the enterprise operating rate and the production ratio of standard products have decreased. The inventory is at a neutral level. With an oversupply of crude oil and weak prices, the new production capacity and declining downstream orders limit the upward space of PP prices. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17]. Plastic - The plastic operating rate decreased on January 6. The downstream PE operating rate is low, with the agricultural film season ending. The inventory is at a neutral level. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the weak demand limits the upward space of plastic prices. The L - PP spread is expected to fall [18][19]. PVC - The PVC operating rate increased, but the downstream operating rate decreased. The export price declined, and the social inventory is high. The real estate market is still in adjustment. New production capacity has been added, and it is recommended to wait and see during the traditional demand off - season [20]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices fell on the day. The coking coal options will be listed on January 16, 2026. The supply may decrease as some mines approach the end - of - year production target, and the Mongolian coal imports will slow down. The downstream demand is weak, and the overall supply - demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the linkage effect of the black series [22]. Urea - Urea prices rose and then fell. The upstream factories raised prices due to positive market sentiment. The supply is abundant, with production resuming. The agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the industrial demand is limited by environmental protection. The inventory is decreasing, but the market may be over - rising, so a correction should be guarded against [23][25].