Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-01-06 11:41Investment Rating - The report rates the defense and military industry as "Overweight," indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [26]. Core Insights - The external geopolitical situation has increased attention on the military industry, which is currently undervalued and under-allocated. The industry is expected to gradually improve due to the ongoing "14th Five-Year Plan" and favorable foreign trade expectations, suggesting a new round of market activity [3][4]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to achieve high-quality modernization of national defense and military forces, indicating that the military industry is entering a new cycle of quality and quantity improvement [3]. - The report anticipates that the military industry's fundamentals will continue to improve in the first half of 2026, with a recovery in orders and performance expected to return to normal [3]. - The report highlights the IPO of Blue Arrow Aerospace, which is expected to raise 7.5 billion yuan, marking a golden development period for commercial aerospace [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand growth and technological advancements in driving investment opportunities within the military sector [3]. Market Review - Last week, the Shenwan Defense and Military Index rose by 3.05%, while the CSI Military Leaders Index increased by 4.29%. In comparison, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.13%, the CSI 300 fell by 0.59%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.25% [4][11]. - The defense and military sector's 3.05% increase ranked second among 31 Shenwan primary industry sectors [4]. - The top five performing stocks in the defense and military sector last week were: - Leike Defense: +33.09% - China Satellite Communications: +26.21% - China Satellite: +18.69% - Aerospace Development: +17.22% - Aerospace Morning Light: +14.87% [11]. - Conversely, the bottom five performing stocks were: - Tianjian Technology: -18.92% - *ST Aowei: -14.11% - Zhongguang Defense: -8.17% - Jianglong Shipbuilding: -7.10% - *ST Zhisheng: -4.50% [12]. Valuation Changes - The current PE-TTM for the Shenwan military sector is 91.39, placing it in the 73.38% valuation percentile since January 2014, and in the 99.41% percentile since January 2019. The aerospace and aviation equipment sectors are noted to be at relatively high valuation levels since 2020 [12][13].