天富期货碳酸锂、工业硅、多晶硅日报-20260106

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report 2. Core Views - Carbonate Lithium: The market is influenced by multiple factors. Policy support, geopolitical and market sentiment, downstream demand, and inventory factors drive prices up, but there are also negative factors such as short - term weakening of downstream demand and slower inventory depletion. The overall situation is "strong reality, strong expectation", and the operation strategy is to go long on dips [2][3][7] - Industrial Silicon: Affected by macro - sentiment, the market is in a state of supply - demand weakness in January. The inventory is at a three - year high, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. The strategy is to view it as a short - term oscillation [15] - Polysilicon: The market has a situation of production exceeding demand in January, and the exchange has introduced regulatory measures. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [18][21] 3. Summary by Industry Carbonate Lithium - Market Trend: The carbonate lithium futures rose by 6.12% to 137,940 yuan/ton [1] - Positive Factors: Policy support includes the 2026 new - energy vehicle trade - in policy and the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan". Geopolitical factors involve Venezuela and Mali. Downstream demand is boosted by price increases of downstream enterprises and production schedule adjustments of positive - electrode material enterprises. Inventory is low, creating a need for restocking [2][3][4] - Negative Factors: In January 2026, leading positive - electrode material factories had centralized maintenance, and in December 2025, new - energy vehicle wholesale decreased by 8% month - on - month. The depletion of social inventory has slowed down [7] - Technical Analysis: The market is dominated by bulls. There are trading opportunities with the "First K Breakthrough Method" and volume increase. The 5 - minute and 2 - hour cycles are strong, and the long - short demarcation line is 118,820 yuan/ton [7] - Strategy Recommendation: Go long on dips, and find entry points using the "First K Breakthrough Method" or "Three - Line Resonance Method" [7] - Follow - up Focus: The resumption of Jiangxi lithium projects, lithium concentrate imports, mine - related policies, new - energy vehicle sales, inventory changes, and geopolitical impacts on lithium supply [8][14] Industrial Silicon - Market Trend: The industrial silicon futures rose by 1.95% to 8,900 yuan/ton [10] - Core Logic: Affected by macro - sentiment, the market has a short - term supply contraction and cost support. The demand side is weak, and the inventory is at a three - year high, continuing the inventory accumulation pattern [15] - Technical Analysis: The overall position has increased significantly. The 5 - minute and 2 - hour cycles are strong, and the long - short demarcation line is 8,715 yuan/ton [15] - Strategy Recommendation: View it as a short - term oscillation and refer to the Band Winner indicator [15] - Breakthrough Focus: Upward breakthrough factors include supply contraction, storage policies, and cost increases. Downward breakthrough factors include new capacity release, downstream开工 rate decline, and electricity price reduction [16] Polysilicon - Market Trend: The polysilicon futures rose by 1.23% to 59,365 yuan/ton [18] - Core Logic: The quoted price of leading manufacturers is above 60 yuan/kg, but the demand is less than production, and inventory will continue to accumulate. Exchange regulatory measures may reduce capital inflow [18][21] - Technical Analysis: The market is rising with reduced positions and insufficient volume. The 5 - minute cycle is green - line, red - band, green - ladder, and the 2 - hour cycle is strong, with a long - short demarcation line of 56,500 yuan/ton [21] - Strategy Recommendation: Wait and see [21] - Follow - up Focus: The recovery of warehouse receipts [21]