对伊威胁叠加市场偏暖情绪下能化板块今日偏强，但后续仍建议品种间分化对待-20260106

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid the threat against Iran and a bullish market sentiment, the energy and chemical sectors are strong today, but it is still recommended to treat different varieties differently in the follow - up [1] - The US attack on Venezuela has limited impact on crude oil, and the market may return to the downward drive caused by the oversupply pressure in the first quarter [2][3][4] - Asphalt can be a key long - position variety, while PX - PTA is in a short - term correction and waiting for the next long - entry opportunity, and styrene can be a key short - position variety [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - Logic: The US attack on Venezuela has limited impact on crude oil as Venezuela's production accounts for about 1% and daily exports are 50 - 800,000 barrels, and it lacks the geographical advantage of the Strait of Hormuz. After the event, the market may return to the downward drive of the first - quarter oversupply pressure [2][3][4] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it rebounded with a reduction in positions, but the short - term downward structure remains intact. The short - term pressure is at the 436 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [4] (2) Asphalt - Logic: The US attack on Venezuela has a substantial impact on domestic asphalt raw materials. Venezuelan crude oil exports are paralyzed, and the main domestic asphalt raw material, Venezuelan heavy oil, faces a real supply cut. The asphalt market faces dual upward drivers of supply reduction and cost increase. [7] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today, and the trading volume has been well - matched since yesterday's gap - up opening. The short - term support is at the 2990 level. The hourly - level strategy is to hold half of the long positions and set the stop - profit at 2990 [7] (3) Styrene - Logic: The entire styrene industry chain has high inventory. The high inventory of upstream pure benzene and weak downstream 3S demand, along with the industry's over - capacity, may lead to a price decline if the expected January export increase is false [10] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure, and the 15 - minute level shows a downward structure. The short - term support is below 6700. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see, and hold the 15 - minute - level short positions with a stop - loss at 6835 [11][13] (4) Rubber - Logic: The seasonal inventory of domestic natural rubber is increasing rapidly, and the downstream tire inventory is high, so there is no significant upward driver [15] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It rose slightly with increased positions today. The short - term support is raised to the 15550 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [15] (5) Synthetic Rubber - Logic: Synthetic rubber maintains a high - operating rate, with a slight inventory reduction due to traders' restocking. However, the high supply pressure of butadiene and high downstream tire inventory limit the upward space [17] - Technical Analysis: Both the daily - and hourly - levels show upward structures. It rose slightly with increased positions today. The short - term support is raised to the 11400 level. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [17] (6) PX - Logic: The fundamentals of PX - PTA are strong in both reality and expectation. However, due to the low acceptance of high prices by downstream polyester, it is facing a short - term correction. There is an opportunity for a second low - buying in the medium - term [20] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It rebounded with increased positions today but did not break through the short - term pressure at 7390. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [20][23] (7) PTA - Logic: Similar to PX, the fundamentals of PX - PTA are strong, but it is facing a short - term correction due to downstream resistance. There is an opportunity for a second low - buying in the medium - term [25] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It rebounded with increased positions today but did not break through the short - term pressure at 5205. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [25] (8) PP - Logic: The fundamentals of the olefin industry chain where PP - plastic belongs are still weak. It is only suitable for the chemical configuration logic in the medium - term hedging of long aromatics (PX, PTA) and short olefins (PP, plastic) [28] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It rose slightly with increased positions today. The short - term support is raised to the 6305 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [28] (9) Methanol - Logic: Methanol port inventory is at a historically high level, and although there is an expected reduction in Iranian ship arrivals, the downstream MTO profit is weakening, and the fundamental driving force is still weak. The US attack on Venezuela has limited impact on methanol [31] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the short - term shows an upward structure. It rose sharply with increased positions today. The short - term support is at the 2200 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [31] (10) PVC - Logic: The reality of high production, weak demand, and high inventory of PVC continues, but the current valuation is low. Pay attention to the expected trading of anti - involution and policy support. The news of differential electricity prices in Shaanxi has stimulated a short - term upward movement [34] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It rose sharply with increased positions today, hitting a new high. The short - term support is raised to the 4725 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to hold long positions and set the stop - profit at 4725 [34] (11) Ethylene Glycol - Logic: The weak coal price in the cost side and the continuous inventory increase in ports, along with weakening demand, do not provide a driving force for a significant reversal [36] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level structure is unclear. It rebounded with a reduction in positions today. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [36] (12) Plastic - Logic: Similar to PP, the fundamentals of the olefin industry chain where plastic belongs are weak. It is only suitable for the chemical configuration logic in the medium - term hedging of long aromatics and short olefins [39] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level downward structure is being challenged. It rebounded with a reduction in positions today, breaking through the short - term pressure at 6545. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [39] (13) Soda Ash - Logic: The inventory pressure of soda ash has weakened slightly, but the over - supply pattern remains, and there is no significant upward driving force without an expected increase in terminal demand [40] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows an upward structure. It rebounded slightly near the support level today. The short - term support is at the 1170 level, and the short - term upward structure remains intact. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [40] (14) Caustic Soda - Logic: Caustic soda has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The supply - demand driving force is downward, but there is no space for chasing short positions [42] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level structure is unclear. It rebounded with a reduction in positions today. Pay attention to the 15 - minute downward structure, and the 15 - minute pressure is at the 2260 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [42]