宏观金融日报-20260106

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The stock index futures market continued to rise sharply on Tuesday, and the spring offensive in 2026 has started ahead of schedule. Investors are advised to stay positive, focus on the central bank's liquidity management, and be aware of the potential impact of the annual report performance announcements of listed companies near the end of January. There are potential structured opportunities in L3 autonomous driving, domestic computing power, and AI applications. [6][7] - The bond market may maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, and investors are recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy with a light position. [10] - The precious metals sector strengthened in the Asian session today, but prices may be under short - term pressure due to the annual parameter adjustment of major commodity indices. Investors can look for buying opportunities on dips. [12] - The container shipping index showed a pattern of opening low and closing high, and the main contract is expected to remain volatile at a high level. Spot enterprises can hold long hedging positions, and there may be positive arbitrage opportunities between EC2604 and EC2608. [15][16] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Current News - Venezuelan President Maduro pleaded not guilty in a US court, and his vice - president was sworn in as the interim president. [2] - The Trump administration plans to meet with US oil company executives to discuss increasing Venezuela's oil production. [3] - Chinese President Xi Jinping met with South Korean President Yoon Suk - yeol, and the two countries signed 15 agreements. [3][4] - Trump mentioned the need for Greenland again, which triggered a backlash from many countries. [4] - The US manufacturing industry contracted for the 10th consecutive month in December, and the short - term recovery possibility is low. [4] - The People's Bank of China announced the liquidity injection of various tools in December, with net injections in some items and net withdrawals in others. [5] 3.2. Variety Views 3.2.1. Stock Index Futures - On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.50% and broke through the high of last year. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased significantly. The underlying indices and futures contracts of stock index futures all rose. The non - silver finance, chemical, and non - ferrous sectors led the gains, and only the communication sector closed down. [6] - The overseas macro - environment is relatively friendly, and China's economy usually has a "good start" in the first quarter. The macro - policy will remain positive and loose at the end of the year and the beginning of the new year, which is conducive to the recovery of market risk appetite. [7] - There are potential opportunities in L3 autonomous driving, domestic computing power, AI applications, and other fields. The prices of lithium carbonate, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals futures will affect the related sectors. Attention should also be paid to controllable nuclear fusion and brain - computer interface. [7] 3.2.2. Treasury Bond Futures - On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 162 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 312.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 296.3 billion yuan. The money market was loose. [10] - Affected by the lower - than - expected bond - buying scale in December announced by the central bank the previous day, treasury bond futures opened and moved lower, and TL2603 hit a new low. The strong performance of the equity market also suppressed the bond market. [10] - The bond market has been volatile recently due to the recovery of risk appetite and concerns about supply. The relaxation of the bond fund redemption fee rate and the extension of the transition period in the new regulations will help the bond market recover, but there is still supply pressure in the first quarter. There is still a possibility of a reserve requirement ratio cut in January. [10] 3.2.3. Precious Metals - In the Asian session today, the precious metals sector strengthened, with silver leading the gains. Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium rose 1.27%, 7.06%, 6.02%, and 5.16% respectively. [12] - Speculative funds mainly reduced their positions, except for silver. The unexpected delivery of the January Cmx silver futures and the low ratio of registered warehouse receipts ignited market sentiment, and the rapid decline of domestic inventory supported the price increase in the Asian session. [12] - Due to the annual parameter adjustment of major commodity indices, the prices of precious metals may be under short - term pressure, and investors are advised to look for buying opportunities on dips. [12] 3.2.4. Container Shipping Index - The container shipping index opened low and closed high on Tuesday. The price - holding efforts of shipping companies supported the index valuation, and the spread repair boosted the EC2604 contract. [15] - The spot market's booking situation in mid - and early January is good, and the shipping demand is relatively stable compared with December. The probability of shipping companies' successful price - holding is expected to increase. [16] - The short - term outlook for the main contract is high - level volatility. Spot enterprises can hold long hedging positions, and there may be positive arbitrage opportunities between EC2604 and EC2608. [16] 3.3. Future 24 - Hour Key Data - Tonight (17:30): UK December SPGI Services PMI Final Value, previous value 52.1, forecast value 52.1; (21:00): Germany December CPI Annual Rate Preliminary Value, previous value 2.3, forecast value 2. [17] - Tomorrow (21:15): US December ADP Employment Change, previous value - 32,000, forecast value 48,000; (23:00): US December ISM Non - manufacturing Index, previous value 52.6, forecast value 52.3; (23:00): US October Durable Goods Orders MoM Final Value, previous value - 2.2%, forecast value - 2.2%. [18]