有色日报：铜领涨有色-20260106

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Copper: Last night, copper prices increased with rising positions and maintained strong performance today with continuous growth in positions. The closing price today rose nearly 4,000 yuan/ton compared to yesterday. After the New Year's Day holiday, the domestic macro - environment continued to warm up, leading to a general rise in assets. Against the backdrop of a shrinking copper industry supply and renewed disturbances at the mine end, there was a resonance of macro and industrial benefits. In the short term, macro and industrial expectations are driving copper prices up, but the industry is in a weak - reality stage with continuously rising global electrolytic copper inventories [6]. - Aluminum: Last night, Shanghai aluminum prices increased with rising positions, and the main contract price reached the 24,000 yuan mark. It maintained a strong and volatile operation today with a decrease in positions. After the New Year's Day holiday, the domestic macro - environment continued to warm up, leading to a general rise in assets. The industry followed passively, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased significantly. Recently, the strong performance of aluminum prices has benefited to some extent from macro - easing and the expectation of aluminum replacing copper. In the short term, aluminum prices are approaching the highs of 2022 and 2021, and continuous attention should be paid to technical pressure [7]. - Nickel: Last night, the main contract price of Shanghai nickel fluctuated narrowly below 135,000 yuan, and today it rose close to the 140,000 - yuan mark. Since this week, the macro - environment has been favorable, and the general rise of non - ferrous metals has largely driven up nickel prices. Since late December, nickel prices have rebounded from the 110,000 - yuan mark to the 130,000 - yuan mark, mainly due to the policy expectations in Indonesia leading to a decrease in the supply expectation in 2026. In the short term, the position volume of nickel prices has not continued to rise, which may reflect insufficient willingness of funds to drive. Continuous attention can be paid to the long - short game at the 140,000 - yuan mark [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Copper - After the New Year's Day holiday, copper prices reached a new high. The downstream demand of refined copper rods in various fields remained weak, and orders did not improve significantly compared to before the holiday. Some refined copper rod enterprises continued to suspend production and said they would wait and see the copper price trend to formulate production plans. On January 5, LME copper prices exceeded $13,000 per ton for the first time due to a strike at a Chilean copper mine, supply gap expectations, and low inventories in LME - certified warehouses. On January 5, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the domestic market was 271,400 tons, an increase of 47,100 tons compared to the 29th and an increase of 24,300 tons compared to the 31st [10]. Aluminum - On January 5, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 703,000 tons, an increase of 65,000 tons compared to the 29th and an increase of 91,000 tons compared to the 25th [10]. Nickel - On the supply side, with the continuous rise of the futures price, the market sentiment was bullish, and upstream enterprises continued to raise their quotes. On the demand side, there was a small amount of rigid - demand replenishment from downstream, and some traders were actively buying, pushing up the transaction price. Overall, the market transaction price continued to rise, and the price of high - nickel pig iron was expected to continue to increase [11]. 2. Related Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME + COMEX), LME copper注销仓单比例, and SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [12][14][15]. Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum rod inventory [25][27][29]. Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [37][39][41].