供应扰动加剧，铜价延续上行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Although the expected interest rate cut in the first quarter of 2026 has slightly declined, the Fed remains in an easing cycle. Trump's upcoming nomination of a new chairman has raised market concerns about the decline in the Fed's independence. Amidst the global electrification transformation and AI - driven industrial revolution, copper is crucial for data centers, electric vehicles, and power grid infrastructure. Domestically, the central bank will flexibly use reserve - requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, implement an expansionary fiscal policy to boost domestic demand, and promote high - quality development through innovation and industrial upgrading. [3][83] - The sudden strike at mines in northern Chile has intensified disturbances in concentrate supply. Global refined copper production capacity may enter a contraction phase, and domestic imports have decreased month - on - month. At the consumption end, traditional industries face weak demand at the end of the year, while emerging industries offer significant growth potential. Non - US inventories overseas are declining, and US copper inventories are rising, accounting for over 50%. [3][83] - In the third quarter, both the Chinese and US economies showed strong resilience. The global AI - driven industrial revolution has created vast demand prospects for metals. The Fed's interest rate cut has increased market risk appetite. It is expected that copper prices will continue to rise strongly in January, and attention should be paid to the internal linkages among gold, silver, and copper. [3][83] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025 December Copper Market Review - In December 2025, copper prices accelerated upward. LME copper rose from a low of around $11,120 to $12,960, and SHFE copper soared from 87,500 to around 102,500. By December 31, LME copper closed at $10,901.5/ton with a monthly increase of 5.8%, and SHFE copper closed at 87,010 yuan/ton with a monthly increase of 4.7%. The weak US dollar and tight fundamentals supported the price increase. [8] - Domestic refined copper terminal consumption faced downward pressure in December. Traditional industries had low - growth consumption, while emerging industries showed good demand. Social inventories rebounded slightly to around 200,000 tons at the end of December, and the spot premium shifted to a deep discount. It is predicted that traditional industries will remain seasonally sluggish in January 2026, while emerging industries will have certain resilience. [10][11] 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 Fed's New Chairman Nomination and US Third - Quarter Economic Growth - After the Fed cut interest rates in December as expected, the federal funds rate is now in the 3.5% - 3.75% range. The new dot - plot shows one rate cut in 2026 and 2027 respectively. Trump will announce a new Fed chairman in early January, and the most likely candidate, Kevin Hassett, may support rate cuts. [13][14] - In November, the US CPI was +2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI was +2.6% year - on - year. The US GDP in the third quarter grew 4.3% year - on - year after inflation adjustment. However, the government shutdown may affect the fourth - quarter economy. It is expected that the Fed may pause rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026. [15] 3.2.2 Lack of Recovery in US Manufacturing and Continued Contraction in Eurozone Manufacturing - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in November shrank to 48.2, below the boom - bust line of 50 for the ninth consecutive month, indicating weak market demand. [16] - The eurozone's manufacturing PMI in December was 49.2, lower than expected. Germany's manufacturing output contraction was a major drag, and although France's manufacturing PMI rebounded, its service PMI declined. The ECB maintained key interest rates in December, and the eurozone economy is in a weak recovery. [16][17] 3.2.3 Flexible Use of Reserve - Requirement Ratio and Interest Rate Cuts and Expansion of "National Subsidies" in 2026 - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, strengthen the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, and support key areas such as domestic demand expansion, innovation, and small and medium - sized enterprises. [18] - In 2026, "national subsidies" will cover four categories: car scrapping, car replacement, home appliances and digital products, and smart products. The scope and subsidy intensity have changed compared to 2025. It is expected that the policy will shift from pure commodity subsidies to a dual - drive model including service consumption. [19] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Slow Resumption of Overseas Interrupted Mines and Further Decline in 2026 Long - Term TC Benchmark Price - The 2026 copper concentrate long - term TC/RC benchmark price was set at $0/dry ton and $0/lb, hitting a new low. The global copper concentrate supply growth in 2026 is expected to be less than 1.5% due to slow resumption of interrupted mines and postponed new mine projects. [22] - A strike at Capstone Copper's Mantoverde mine in Chile may cause losses of up to $160 million. Some mines such as Oyu Tolgoi, QB, and KFM have production increases or expansion plans. [23][24] 3.3.2 Flat Domestic Refined Copper Production in November and Hurdles in Overseas Refined Copper Capacity Release - In November, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1034 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.8%. The stable production was due to high profits from by - products and sufficient copper concentrate imports. The 125,000 - ton cathode copper refining project of Sichuan Liangshan Copper will start production in March 2026. [32] - Overseas, some smelters have been shut down or reduced production due to low processing fees. For example, Glencore's PASAR and Altonorte smelters have stopped production. Some projects' production increases are postponed, and overall, overseas refined copper capacity release will slow down. [33] 3.3.3 Widening Year - on - Year Decline in Refined Copper Imports and Month - on - Month Rebound in Scrap Copper Imports - From January to November, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products decreased by 19% year - on - year, and refined copper imports decreased by 8.3% year - on - year. In November, imports dropped significantly due to high US copper tariffs and port congestion. [53] - From January to November, scrap copper imports increased by 3.63% year - on - year. China will expand scrap copper imports from Southeast Asia and strengthen the recycling and utilization of scrap copper. However, policies have increased the tax burden on scrap copper rod enterprises, leading to supply tightening. [55] 3.3.4 Rising COMEX Inventories and Rebound of Domestic Social Inventories from Low Levels - Since December, domestic inventories have rebounded from low levels, and global visible inventories have continued to rise. COMEX copper inventories have exceeded 50% of the global total. The increase in domestic inventories is due to high copper prices suppressing consumption and reduced overseas supply. It is expected that global visible inventories will remain high and volatile in January 2026. [59][60][61] 3.3.5 Weak Demand in Traditional Industries and Large Growth Potential in Emerging Industries - In the power grid, investment growth has slowed, and the demand for copper in January 2026 may be restricted. [64][67] - In the photovoltaic and wind power sectors, the photovoltaic industry is in a critical stage of anti - involution, and wind power growth has marginally rebounded. However, the copper consumption in the wind and solar industries may decline by about 10% this year. [68][70] - The real estate market is still at the bottom, with investment, construction, and sales data showing a downward trend. The demand for copper is expected to remain low in January 2026. [71][72] - The air - conditioning industry is in adjustment. Domestic sales are under pressure in the short term, but the "trade - in" policy in 2026 will promote the industry's upgrade. [73][74] - The new - energy vehicle industry has maintained high - speed growth. Although the subsidy policy will change in 2026, the market demand space is still large, and sales are expected to maintain a high - speed growth in January 2026. [75][76][77] - The data center industry is accelerating due to AI computing power demand. It is expected that the copper consumption in data centers will increase by about 1.05 million tons in 2026. [78][79] 3.4 Market Outlook - Macroeconomically, the Fed is in an easing cycle, and China will implement expansionary policies. Fundamentally, supply disturbances intensify, and consumption shows a differentiation between traditional and emerging industries. It is predicted that copper prices will continue to rise strongly in January 2026, and attention should be paid to the internal linkages among gold, silver, and copper. [83]