矿山供应扰动不断，铜价延续偏强走势

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The copper price continues to show a strong trend, and considering the continuous disruptions in copper mine supply, the copper price may continue its upward momentum. It is recommended to continue to focus on long positions in copper [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - The copper price continues to be strong. The Shanghai copper price has exceeded 105,000 yuan/ton, and the London copper price has exceeded $13,000/ton. Capstone Copper announced that a union strike at its Mantoverde mine in Chile will involve about 22% of the labor force, and the mine's output during the strike is expected to drop to 30% of the normal level, with an annual output of about 50,000 tons. Tongling Nonferrous disclosed that the second - phase project of the Dorimilado copper plant under its subsidiary has officially suspended production due to the overdue signing of the mining contract, further exacerbating the tightness of copper mine supply [2] Fundamental Situation - On the supply side, copper mine supply disruptions continue to increase. The production cut at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia and the delayed commissioning of Tongling Nonferrous' copper mine have tightened the supply. In 2028, the long - term processing fee for copper mines has reached a record low of $0/ton. Chinese copper enterprises plan to reduce expanded production capacity by over 10% in 2026, and Congo has emphasized optimizing copper smelting capacity, strengthening the expectation of a contraction in refined copper supply. On the demand side, with the arrival of the off - season, terminal demand remains weak and inventories continue to accumulate. However, with the strengthening of the supply contraction expectation, the copper market is shifting from oversupply to tightness, and the overall supply - demand expectation is optimistic [3] Summary and Strategy - Looking ahead, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and balance - sheet expansion, the dollar remains weak, which significantly supports the copper price. Given the continuous disruptions in copper mine supply, the copper price may continue its upward trend, and it is advisable to focus on long positions in copper [4]