银河期货航运日报-20260106

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a shipping research report dated January 6, 2026, focusing on container shipping, specifically the Container Shipping Index (European Lines) [1][2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - EC2602 closed at 1,872.7 points, up 0.93% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 21,716 hands (-5.18%) and an open interest of 24,996 hands (-4.03%). EC2604 closed at 1,223.8 points, up 2.15%, with a trading volume of 10,278 hands (20.04%) and an open interest of 23,930 hands (5.75%). Other contracts also showed different price, volume, and open interest changes [4] - The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as the EC02 - EC04 spread being 649, down 8.6 [4] Container Freight Rates - SCFIS European Line index was 1,795.83 points, up 3.05% week - on - week and down 46.99% year - on - year. SCFIS US West Line index was 1,250.12 points, down 3.94% week - on - week and down 55.71% year - on - year. Other routes also had different price changes [4] Fuel Costs - WTI crude oil near - month contract price was $58.10 per barrel, up 1.38% week - on - week and down 20.78% year - on - year. Brent crude oil near - month contract price was $61.42 per barrel, up 1.44% week - on - week and down 19.2% year - on - year [4] Group 3: Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations Market Analysis - MSK released a quote of $2,800/HC for Shanghai - Rotterdam in WK4, slightly up $100 from last week. The spot price continued to rise, and the market was debating the peak of spot freight rates and the subsequent price adjustment rhythm. The EC futures market was expected to remain volatile and slightly strong, with funds gradually shifting to the 04 contract [6] - On January 6, EC2602 closed at 1,872.7 points, up 0.93%. On December 26, the SCFI European Line quote was $1,690/TEU, up 10.24% week - on - week. The latest SCFIS European Line index released on Monday was 1,795.83 points, up 3% week - on - week, slightly lower than expected due to four low - priced ships' cross - week delays and roll - overs in wk52. The index center was expected to gradually rise in the future [6] Logic Analysis - In terms of spot freight rates, different shipping companies had different quotes for January. The demand from December to January was expected to gradually improve. The supply of shipping capacity from Shanghai to the five Nordic ports in January/February/March 2026 was 30.74/27.59/28.33 million TEU per week, with a slight decrease in January and February compared to the previous period. There were new ship cancellations and delays. Attention should be paid to the shipping companies' price adjustment rhythm and the timing of peak prices in January [7] - Geopolitically, the US attack on Venezuela caused short - term fluctuations in crude oil prices and concerns about long - term energy supply chain reconstruction. It might increase fuel costs in the short term and put pressure on oil prices in the long term, affecting the trade pattern. Currently, the conflict had little impact on container shipping routes, but the scale and scope of the conflict needed to be monitored [7] Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: The short - term valuation of the futures market was strong. Most long positions in the EC2602 contract could take profits at high prices, and the remaining light positions could be held depending on the situation. Attention should be paid to the strength of the pre - Spring Festival shipping peak. The upside of far - month contracts was expected to be limited due to the expectation of ship resumption [8] - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [9] Group 4: Industry News - On January 6, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu conveyed to Iran through Russian President Putin that Israel did not intend to further escalate the situation or attack Iran, aiming to prevent Iran from misjudging the situation and launching a preemptive strike [11] - Xeneta's chief analyst Peter Sand said that the shipping capacity supply on the Asia - Pacific to Nordic routes this week reached a historical high with no cancellations [11] - Trump said that if India did not assist in the Russian oil issue, the US might increase tariffs on India [11] - Indian government sources said that India was asking refiners to disclose weekly purchases of Russian and US oil, and Russian oil imports were expected to fall below 1 million barrels per day [11]