螺纹热卷日报-20260106

Group 1: Market Information 1.1 Futures Information 1.1.1 Thread Futures - RB05: Yesterday's price was 3104 yuan/ton, today's is 3111 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton [2] - RB10: Yesterday's price was 3146 yuan/ton, today's is 3156 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2] - RB01: Yesterday's price was 3088 yuan/ton, today's is 3082 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton [2] 1.1.2 Hot Roll Futures - HC05: Yesterday's price was 3248 yuan/ton, today's is 3263 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton [2] - HC10: Yesterday's price was 3271 yuan/ton, today's is 3282 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton [2] - HC01: Yesterday's price was 3220 yuan/ton, today's is 3240 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [2] 1.2 Spot Information 1.2.1 Thread Spot - Shanghai Zhongtian: Today's price is 3250 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from yesterday [2] - Nanjing Xicheng: Today's price is 3400 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from yesterday [2] - Shandong Shiheng: Today's price is 3240 yuan/ton, unchanged from yesterday [2] - Tangshan Tanggang: Today's price is 3100 yuan/ton, unchanged from yesterday [2] 1.2.2 Hot Roll Spot - Tianjin Hegang Hot Roll: Today's price is 3160 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from yesterday [2] - Lecong Rigang Hot Roll: Today's price is 3240 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from yesterday [2] - Shanghai Angang Hot Roll: Today's price is 3240 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from yesterday [2] 1.3 Spread and Profit Information 1.3.1 Thread - 05 contract thread basis: The cheapest delivery product is 79 yuan/ton [2] - 10 contract thread basis: The cheapest delivery product is 34 yuan/ton [2] - 01 contract thread basis: The cheapest delivery product is 108 yuan/ton [2] - 05 contract thread surface profit: -147 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from yesterday [2] - 10 contract thread surface profit: -103 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from yesterday [2] - 01 contract thread surface profit: -116 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton from yesterday [2] 1.3.2 Hot Roll - 05 contract hot roll basis: The cheapest delivery product is -23 yuan/ton [2] - 10 contract hot roll basis: The cheapest delivery product is -42 yuan/ton [2] - 01 contract hot roll basis: The cheapest delivery product is 0 yuan/ton [2] - 05 contract hot roll surface profit: 5 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from yesterday [2] - 10 contract hot roll surface profit: 23 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton from yesterday [2] - 01 contract hot roll surface profit: 42 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton from yesterday [2] Group 2: Market Analysis 2.1 Core View - Today, the steel futures market oscillated in the morning and rebounded from the bottom in the afternoon. The overall spot trading volume of steel was average, and the low - price trading volume continued to improve in the afternoon [6] - Last week, steel production resumed, and the output of both thread and hot roll increased due to the repair of profit levels. The total steel inventory continued to decline, and the decline rate of social inventory was faster than that of factory inventory. Steel is still in the de - stocking cycle, and inventory accumulation is relatively delayed [6] - Affected by the season, the apparent demand for building materials weakened, while the apparent demand for hot roll increased due to the year - end restocking of home appliance enterprises and export impulse. The overall steel demand performance was still acceptable [6] - On the raw material side, coal mine supply decreased slightly, prices stopped falling and stabilized. The loss of import profit supported the iron ore price, and steel costs had support. Recently, the iron ore market started to trade restocking. However, the resumption of hot metal production may accelerate in the future, suppressing the upward space of steel prices [6] - In January, the steel export license management began. After the export impulse in December, short - term exports may decline. With the arrival of winter, the marginal demand for steel weakened, putting pressure on steel prices. The impact of subsequent policies on the export side still needs to wait and see the actual implementation. It is expected that hot metal production will still increase this week. Continue to pay attention to the impact of macro news on the futures market [6] 2.2 Trading Strategies 2.2.1 Unilateral - Maintain an oscillating trend, and it is recommended to wait and see [7] 2.2.2 Arbitrage - It is recommended to short the hot roll - coal ratio at high levels and continue to hold the short position of the hot roll - thread spread [8] 2.2.3 Options - It is recommended to wait and see [9] Group 3: Important Information - Starting from January 6, the atmospheric diffusion conditions in Handan City have gradually improved, and the Heavy Pollution Weather Emergency Response was lifted at 10:00 on January 6, 2026 [10][11] - On January 5, Fuzhou organized the video - connection activity for the start of major projects in the first quarter. A total of 185 major projects started, with a total investment of 120.97 billion yuan and an annual planned investment of 43.75 billion yuan [11] Group 4: Related Drawings - The report provides 31 related drawings, including the aggregate price of thread steel, the aggregate price of hot - rolled coil, the basis of different contracts, the spread between different contracts, the surface profit of different contracts, and the cash profit of different regions and processes [14][16][18]