铜行业专题报告：扰动紧缩供给，电驱重塑需求

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The copper industry is experiencing a tightening supply situation, with a shift in demand driven by electric vehicles and AI investments, leading to an expected increase in copper prices in 2026 [3][85] - The macroeconomic environment is improving with expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which may support copper prices [3][30] - Global copper supply is projected to turn into a shortage by 2026, influenced by reduced production forecasts from major mining companies [3][43][60] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand - Chinese smelters and Antofagasta have set the 2026 copper concentrate long-term processing fee benchmark at $0/ton and $0/pound, indicating a tightening global copper supply-demand balance [3][85] - Approximately 200,000 tons of copper smelting capacity in China has been suspended due to extreme pressure on smelting profits, with current processing fees in negative territory [48][85] Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts are expected to alleviate macroeconomic pressures, potentially boosting investment and consumption [3][30] - The U.S. economy is facing a mid-term election and a change in the Federal Reserve chair, which may lead to a combination of loose monetary and fiscal policies [3][85] Inventory Trends - U.S. copper inventories are expected to continue accumulating due to tariff expectations, while domestic copper social inventories are on a downward trend [3][85] - Global copper inventories remain high, influenced by U.S. market conditions [3][85] Individual Stocks - Key stocks to watch include Jiangxi Copper, Luoyang Molybdenum, Shengton, Cangge, Jincheng, and Northern Copper, with H-shares including China Nonferrous Mining and Minmetals [3][86]