融达期货棉花周报：节前郑棉减仓价格小幅回落，短期或延续稳中偏强走势-20260106

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The short - term upward movement of Zhengzhou cotton is under certain hedging pressure. Downstream textile mills have a rigid demand for cotton, so the short - term cotton price may continue to be stable with a slight upward bias. In the medium - to - long term, both policies and fundamentals are expected to improve, and the center of cotton prices may rise [2] - The core logic includes large cotton production this year leading to hedging pressure on the futures market; the overall stable operating rate of textile mills and the rigid demand for cotton from expanding enterprises in Xinjiang; positive expectations for cotton planting area and target subsidies [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. One - week Data Overview - Commodity Price Changes: The CotlookA index rose 0.3 cents/lb to 74.3 cents/lb, a 0.41% increase; NYMEX light crude oil rose $0.4/barrel to $57.33/barrel, a 0.7% increase; ICE No. 2 cotton fell 0.45 cents/lb to 64.01 cents/lb, a 0.7% decrease. Among the import cotton CNF prices, FCIndex to - port price rose 0.34 cents/lb to 73.96 cents/lb, a 0.46% increase [5] - Cotton Futures and Spot Prices: As of December 31, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract 05 closed at 14585 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from December 26, with a cumulative reduction of 43,000 lots in positions to 861,000 lots. The ICE cotton main contract 03 in December was at 64.3 cents/lb, down 0.16 cents/lb from December 26, a 0.2% decrease; the cotton spot price index was at 15556 yuan/ton, up 239 yuan/ton from last week, a 1.56% increase [6] 2. Domestic Market Basic Situation - Raw Material Prices: On December 31, raw material prices showed mixed trends. The short - fiber main contract closing price rose 30 yuan/ton to 6514 yuan/ton, a 0.46% increase; the cotton main contract closing price rose 405 yuan/ton to 14585 yuan/ton, a 2.86% increase; the cotton spot 3128B market price rose 285 yuan/ton to 15556 yuan/ton, a 1.87% increase; the polyester short - fiber price rose 65 yuan/ton to 6520 yuan/ton, a 1.01% increase; the viscose short - fiber price fell 25 yuan/ton to 12825 yuan/ton, a 0.19% decrease [9] - Domestic Yarn Prices: On December 31, domestic yarn prices moved slightly upward. The OEC10S air - spun yarn rose 130 yuan/ton to 15000 yuan/ton, a 0.87% increase; the C32S carded yarn rose 100 yuan/ton to 20900 yuan/ton, a 0.48% increase; the C40S carded yarn rose 120 yuan/ton to 21800 yuan/ton, a 0.55% increase [11] - Imported Yarn Prices: In dollar terms, the price of foreign yarn moved slightly upward. The FCYIndexJC32S to - port price rose 0.01 dollars/kg to 2.67 dollars/kg, a 0.38% increase; the Pakistan C21S imported yarn to - port price rose 0.01 dollars/kg to 2.37 dollars/kg, a 0.42% increase. In RMB terms, the price of foreign yarn increased collectively, with the Vietnam C32S imported yarn port pick - up price rising 50 yuan/ton to 21240 yuan/ton, a 0.24% increase [14][18] - Cotton Price Spreads: On December 31, the spread between the domestic cotton spot price index CCI3128B and the FCindex sliding - tariff port pick - up price was 1626 yuan/ton, up 247 yuan/ton from last week, and the spread widened; the spread between the Zhengzhou cotton main contract and the FCindex sliding - tariff port pick - up price was 655 yuan/ton, up 367 yuan/ton from last week, and the spread widened. The spread between the Zhengzhou cotton main contract and the tariff - included ICE main contract was 1775 yuan/ton, up 406 yuan/ton from last week, and the spread widened; the spread between the Zhengzhou cotton main contract and the ICE main contract's converted on - screen price was 4672 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton from last week, and the spread widened [22][24] - Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts: On December 31, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 9239, an increase of 1047 from last week. Among them, the total number of warehouse receipts was 5712, an increase of 1342 from last week; the total number of effective forecasts was 3527, a decrease of 295 from last week [27] - Zhengzhou Cotton Futures - Spot Spread: As of December 31, the spread between the Zhengzhou cotton main contract and the CCI3128B spot price index was - 971 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from last week, and the spread narrowed [29] - Cotton Inventory: As of December 15, the total national commercial cotton inventory was 534.9 million tons, an increase of 66.54 million tons from half a month ago. The total inventory in Xinjiang was 438.97 million tons, an increase of 59.92 million tons from half a month ago; the total inventory in the inland was 61.13 million tons, an increase of 5.02 million tons from half a month ago; the bonded - area cotton inventory was 34.8 million tons, an increase of 2.6 million tons from half a month ago [32] - Cotton Imports: As of November 30, the monthly cotton import volume was 12 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons from the previous month, a 33% increase; compared with the same period, it increased by 1 million tons, a 9% increase [34] 3. Zhengzhou Cotton Market Analysis - Macro - environment: In 2026, the national subsidy for the large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in policy will continue, and the support scope will be optimized. In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, entering the expansion range. The production index and new order index increased, indicating an acceleration of production activities and an improvement in market demand [1][35] - Supply - side Situation: From December 26 - 25, the US 2025/26 cotton grading inspection was 12.92 million tons, with 82.1% of lint meeting the ICE cotton futures delivery requirements. As of the same period, the cumulative grading inspection was 255.35 million tons, with 82.7% of lint meeting the requirements. There are rumors about a reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area in 2026/27, but official confirmation is needed [1][35] - Demand - side Situation: From January - November, the textile industry's total profit was 618.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2%, and the decline accelerated. The demand side was weak, and the problem of insufficient downstream orders could not be solved in the short term. The import of yarn continued to impact the market, and the price increase space for pure - cotton yarn was limited. However, downstream textile mills had the intention to replenish inventory due to rigid demand [1][35] - Market Performance and Outlook: The center of Zhengzhou cotton futures moved slightly upward this week. In the short term, supported by fundamentals, Zhengzhou cotton was relatively strong. Before the New Year's Day holiday, some profit - taking funds left the market, and market trading became more cautious. The market expected a reduction in domestic cotton production in the new year, which supported cotton prices. High - count combed cotton yarn performed well, while conventional medium - and low - count yarns faced inventory pressure. In the short term, the downside space was limited. After the holiday, attention should be paid to the implementation of Xinjiang's planting policy and the recovery of downstream demand [35]