生猪日报：供应压力好转，现货整体反弹-20260106

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The current supply pressure of the live - hog market has improved, and the spot price has generally rebounded. However, due to the high inventory and large slaughter weight of live - hogs, the overall supply remains sufficient, and the upward space of pig prices is limited. The subsequent spot price of live - hogs is expected to be mainly downward. - The futures price of live - hogs has risen, mainly affected by the decline of the spot price. In the short - term, the supply pressure is limited, and the price may be strongly supported. In the medium - and long - term, the downward pressure on the price of live - hogs is obvious, and the futures market is expected to decline [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Information - Today, the live - hog prices across the country showed a strong trend. The slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises increased slightly but remained at a low level, and the enthusiasm for slaughter was generally average. The enthusiasm of ordinary farmers for slaughter increased, and the slaughter pressure increased compared with before. - The entry of secondary fattening has decreased recently, the price difference between large and small pigs has declined, and the supply of large - weight pigs has increased. The current slaughter weight of live - hogs remains high, and there are still many large - weight pigs. The slowdown of the slaughter rhythm has supported the pig price to some extent. In the short - term, the market may have a phased support performance, but the overall upward space of pig prices is limited due to the sufficient supply [1]. Futures Information - The futures price of live - hogs has risen. The previous large increase in the futures market reflected the tightening of supply. The recent decline in the spot price has affected the futures market. In the short - term, the supply pressure of live - hogs is limited, and the price may be strongly supported. In the medium - and long - term, due to the high inventory, the supply pressure is obvious, and the futures price will be mainly downward [4]. Transaction Strategy - Unilateral trading: Adopt a bearish strategy. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [5].