Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Meal Daily Report" dated January 6, 2026, with the theme "Supply Pressure Improves, Futures Prices Rebound Slightly" [1] Group 2: Researcher Information - The researcher is Chen Jiezheng, with futures practice certificate number F3045719 and investment consulting certificate number Z0015458. Contact email: chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.com.cn [2] Group 3: Market Quotes Futures and Spot Basis - For soybean meal, contract 01 closed at 3150 with a gain of 31; contract 05 closed at 2776 with a gain of 22; contract 09 closed at 2871 with a gain of 16. Spot basis in Tianjin dropped 10 to 340, in Dongguan remained at 330, in Zhangjiagang dropped 10 to 300, and in Rizhao dropped 10 to 310 [3] - For rapeseed meal, contract 01 closed at 2637 with a gain of 24; contract 05 closed at 2390 with a gain of 29; contract 09 closed at 2437 with a gain of 30. Spot basis in Nantong dropped 9 to 110, in Guangdong dropped 9 to 160, and in Guangxi dropped 9 to 150 [3] Monthly Spreads - For soybean meal, the 15 - spread was 374 (up 9), the 59 - spread was - 95 (up 6), and the 91 - spread was - 279 (down 15). For rapeseed meal, the 15 - spread was 247 (down 5), the 59 - spread was - 47 (down 1), and the 91 - spread was - 200 (up 6) [3] Cross - Variety Futures Spreads - The soybean - rapeseed 01 spread was 513 (up from 506), the soybean - rapeseed 09 spread was 434 (down from 448), and the oil - meal ratio 01 was 2.584 (down from 2.590) [3] Spot Spreads - The soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread was 576 (down 8), the rapeseed meal - sunflower meal spread was 280 (down 20), and the soybean meal - sunflower meal spread was 836 (down 18) [3] Group 4: Market Review - The US soybean futures market showed an overall upward trend after a significant decline. The domestic soybean meal futures also rose, supported by cost and supply uncertainties. Rapeseed meal rose due to macro - factors. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread trended up, with rapeseed meal demand support limited and more influenced by soybean meal prices. Soybean meal monthly spreads were strong, and rapeseed meal monthly spreads rose slightly [3] Group 5: Fundamental Analysis International Market - The US soybean market remains in a relatively loose supply - demand situation, with downward price pressure. South American supply factors have increased. Brazil's new - crop planting progress has accelerated but is still below the historical average. Most institutions expect a bumper harvest in Brazil, with expected export growth subject to actual yield. Brazil's old - crop exports and crushing are good, but future crushing may be limited. Argentina's old - crop soybean production is large, with increased crushing and exports, though export growth may be limited [4] Domestic Market - The domestic spot market is in a loose supply - demand situation, with high oil mill operating rates, sufficient supply, and increasing提货量. As of January 2, the actual soybean crushing volume was 1.7533 million tons, the operating rate was 48.23%, soybean inventory was 7.1025 million tons (up 8.53% from last week and 19.48% year - on - year), and soybean meal inventory was 1.1702 million tons (up 0.22% from last week and 71.18% year - on - year). Rapeseed meal demand has weakened, with oil mill operations mostly halted, low rapeseed supply, and high granular rapeseed meal inventory. As of January 2, coastal rapeseed inventory and rapeseed meal inventory were both 0 tons [5] Group 6: Logic Analysis - The US soybean market showed a slight rebound after full reflection of downward pressure. With limited demand support, if supply remains high, pressure will persist. Brazil's short - term weather is favorable, and if it continues, the pressure of a bumper harvest may increase. The international soybean market remains relatively loose, and prices are expected to be under pressure. South American quotes are firm, and domestic soybean meal supply may decrease, with some support for spot prices. In the medium - to - long - term, price pressure remains. Rapeseed meal demand is weak, and its downward space is limited due to the improvement of soybean meal spot prices. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread is expected to narrow. Soybean meal monthly spreads may decline, and rapeseed meal monthly spreads will fluctuate slightly [6] Group 7: Trading Strategies - For single - side trading, it is recommended to make small - scale long positions. For arbitrage, it is recommended to bet on the narrowing of the MRM spread. For options, it is recommended to sell a wide - straddle strategy [7] Group 8: Soybean Crushing Profit - The report provides the soybean crushing profit data from Brazil for different shipping months from February to August 2026, including CNF, CBOT, contract, exchange rate, soybean meal price, soybean oil price, and the changes in crushing profit compared to the previous day [8]
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Yin He Qi Huo·2026-01-06 13:03