马棕继续累库，油脂反弹乏力

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic and international oil markets have been under pressure recently, maintaining a weak and volatile pattern. The core drivers are the supply pressure and weak demand in the international market. South American soybean production areas have favorable weather, and expectations of a bumper harvest continue to suppress market sentiment. The decline in international crude oil prices has weakened the support for the biodiesel theme, and post - holiday terminal procurement has slowed down, leading to light market trading. Against this backdrop, palm oil has become the leading decliner due to inventory pressure, while soybean oil has shown relative resistance as some domestic oil mills have shut down, resulting in a temporary tightening of supply [2]. - Overall, the oil sector lacks effective positive factors. Under the dual influence of macro and fundamental factors, its center of gravity is shifting downward. The reference price ranges for the main contracts are 7700 - 8000 for soybean oil, 8300 - 8600 for palm oil, and 8900 - 9200 for rapeseed oil [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last month, the domestic oil futures market showed a weak and volatile pattern. Affected by factors such as seasonal production increases in international palm oil production areas, ample supply of related vegetable oils, and the decline in crude oil prices, market sentiment was bearish. Although there was a temporary restocking demand on the domestic consumption side, which supported prices to some extent, there was insufficient upward momentum. The main contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all declined, with palm oil showing a relatively significant decline due to external market influence. The oil sector continued its adjustment trend under the loose supply - demand fundamentals [5]. 3.2 Palm Oil - Production and Inventory: In November 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.829 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.3%, higher than the market's expected seasonal flat or slight increase. The high inventory level will continue to limit the rebound space of palm oil prices. As of the end of November, Malaysia's palm oil inventory reached 2.51 million tons, a significant month - on - month increase of about 10.8% [10]. - Export: In November 2025, Malaysia's palm oil export volume was 1.44 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 9.3%. Weak exports were mainly due to sufficient inventories and low procurement willingness in major importing countries and intensified competition from Indonesia. However, in December, according to SGS data, Malaysia's palm oil export volume increased by 28.4% month - on - month [14][18]. - Import and Arrival: As of December 31, there were a total of 10 palm oil purchase vessels, with 6 vessels for January shipment and the rest for December - January. There were no new cancelations. The arrival volume at the end of the year was sufficient. Import profits were mostly in deep inversion, which suppressed new procurement by traders [21]. - Domestic Inventory and Trading: As of the end of December 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 734,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 34,100 tons and a year - on - year increase of 205,700 tons. The total trading volume of palm oil in key domestic oil mills was 13,000 tons, with an average daily trading volume of 590.9 tons, a significant decrease from the previous month [25]. - Basis and Spread: As of December 31, the palm oil futures price first fell and then rose, and the basis in each region declined significantly. The soybean - palm oil futures spread decreased by 89.01% month - on - month, and the spot spread decreased by 79.78% month - on - month [29]. 3.3 Soybean Oil - International Soybean Situation: The US government shutdown caused the USDA to miss the October report. The November report after the shutdown was cautious in adjusting the yield forecast, and the December report did not adjust the balance sheet as usual. The USDA's January production - determining report will be crucial for the 2025/2026 US soybean production and supply - demand situation. Last month, US soybean export sales were generally lackluster, and the market's focus has shifted to the planting intentions and weather of the new US soybean season [32][36]. - Import Premium: Last month, the international soybean premium quotes showed a divergent trend. The premium of US soybeans (US Gulf) was stable and slightly stronger, while that of South American soybeans (Brazil/Argentina) was generally under pressure [39]. - Domestic Inventory and Production: As of December 26, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 1.089 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34,500 tons. Some oil mills shut down due to a shortage of soybeans, causing the soybean oil inventory to gradually decline [43]. - Spot Basis and Trading: In December, the domestic soybean oil spot price was in a weak and volatile trend. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was mainly for rigid needs. The spot basis was stable and slightly weak. The total trading volume of soybean oil in key domestic oil mills increased compared to the previous month [47]. 3.4 Rapeseed Oil - Trade Situation: China is actively diversifying its sources of rapeseed imports. The trade between China and Canada regarding rapeseed is in a state of uncertainty, with potential trade - related risks [51]. - Inventory and Basis: As of the end of December, the total rapeseed oil inventory in major regions was 285,000 tons, a significant decrease from the previous month. The basis was strong, and the market is expected to show a wide - range volatile pattern in the short term [55].