中信期货晨报：国内商品期市收盘涨跌参半，贵金属涨幅居前-20260106

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas: Trump may announce the nomination for the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve in January. Hassett is the most likely candidate, and the interest - rate cut path may be faster in the next one to two years. The geopolitical event in Venezuela over the weekend has limited short - term positive effects on crude oil and precious metals due to its low supply share [6]. - Domestic: Policy expectations are rising in the first quarter. The manufacturing PMI rebounded in December, and the 2026 national subsidy policy has been optimized. The National Development and Reform Commission has issued relevant project lists and investment plans, and approved major infrastructure projects, which may stabilize the investment side in the first quarter [6]. - Asset Views: Based on the rising domestic policy expectations, an offensive approach can be emphasized in the "balanced allocation" strategy. It is recommended to overweight stock index and non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin) on the long side. Precious metals should be standard - allocated in the short - term and overweighted when volatility stabilizes. Different asset classes have different quarterly drivers [6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - Stock Index Futures: All major stock index futures (CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000) showed positive daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and year - to - date returns, with increases ranging from 2.11% to 3.17% [3]. - Bond Futures: 2 - year, 5 - year, and 30 - year bond futures had negative returns, while 10 - year bond futures remained unchanged [3]. - Foreign Exchange: The US dollar index had a 0.19% monthly, quarterly, and year - to - date increase. The euro - US dollar exchange rate and the US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate had some fluctuations [3]. - Interest Rates: There were changes in various interest rates, such as a 1bp increase in the 10 - year US Treasury yield and a - 0.5bp change in the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield [3]. - Industry Indexes: Different industries had different performance. For example, the comprehensive finance industry had a 13.08% year - to - date increase, while the power equipment and new energy industry had a 35.94% year - to - date increase but a - 2.61% daily decline [3]. - Overseas Commodities: Energy, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products all showed different price movements. For example, COMEX silver had a 1.81% daily increase, while NYMEX natural gas had a - 1.89% daily decrease [3]. Sector - by - Sector Short - Term Judgments - Financial Sector: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, stock index options to be volatile, and bond futures to be volatile [7]. - Precious Metals: Gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner [7]. - Shipping: The container shipping route to Europe is expected to be volatile [7]. - Black Building Materials: Most products in this sector, such as steel, iron ore, and coke, are expected to be volatile [7]. - Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials: Most base metals are expected to be in a volatile consolidation phase, with some like copper, aluminum, and tin expected to rise in a volatile manner [7]. - Energy and Chemicals: Most products in this sector, including crude oil, LPG, and asphalt, are expected to be volatile, with some like methanol expected to rise in a volatile manner [9]. - Agriculture: Products such as natural rubber, synthetic rubber, and cotton are expected to rise in a volatile manner, while products like sugar are expected to decline in a volatile manner [9].