贵金属周报：地缘局势扰动，贵金属波动加剧-20260106

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - From December 22 to January 4, foreign and domestic precious metals showed mixed performance, with silver outperforming gold and the gold - silver ratio continuing to decline. The year - end correction in precious metals was driven by capital behavior, market panic, and CME's margin hike, leading to profit - taking and a long - position stampede. In the short term, geopolitical events, upcoming PMI, and non - farm payroll data may affect precious metal prices. The medium - to - long - term logic remains unchanged, but overall volatility may increase [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View - Price Performance: From December 22 to January 4, COMEX gold futures fell 1.03% to $4341.90 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures rose 7.08% to $72.27 per ounce. Domestically, Shanghai gold futures fell 0.27% to 977.56 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver futures rose 11.92% to 17,074 yuan per kilogram [4]. - Economic Data: The Q3 2025 US GDP growth rate reached 4.3%, far exceeding market expectations and hitting a two - year high. However, due to the previous government shutdown, the market is cautious about the reliability and comparability of these data [4][21]. - Interest Rate Cut Expectations: In the December FOMC meeting, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points as expected, but there were three dissenting votes. The market expects the near - term rate - cut pace to slow or pause, while the policy path in H2 2026 depends on economic data and the new Fed chair's policy stance [4][23]. - Geopolitical Factors: The US shows a diplomatic negotiation attitude on the Ukraine issue but takes military action in Venezuela, which seriously impacts international relations. Geopolitical instability is a major factor affecting precious metal prices [4][25]. 3.2 Macro - GDP Growth: The Q3 2025 US GDP growth rate was 4.3%, with a total GDP of $7.79 trillion. Personal consumption, exports, and government spending contributed to growth, while non - residential fixed investment slowed, residential investment decreased, and private inventory investment dragged down growth [21]. - Market Attitude: Despite the strong GDP data, the market is cautious due to the previous government shutdown causing a data vacuum [21]. 3.3 Interest Rate Cut Expectations - FOMC Meeting: In December, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, but three members opposed it. The change in wording in the policy statement indicates a higher threshold for future rate cuts [23]. - Dot - Plot Projection: The median projection in the dot - plot shows only one rate cut in 2026. Fed Chair Powell said the current policy rate is in the "neutral" range [23]. - Political Uncertainty: Powell's term ends in May 2026. Some potential successors may support more aggressive rate cuts, leading to a split in market expectations [23]. 3.4 Geopolitics - Ukraine Issue: Trump and Zelensky reached about 95% consensus on a "20 - point peace plan" but the territorial issue remains unresolved. The US and Russia have formed a working group [25]. - Venezuela Situation: The US launched an air strike on Caracas on January 3, which was strongly opposed by the international community. The UN Security Council will hold an emergency meeting on this [25]. - Greenland Claim: Trump's claim to Greenland has drawn strong protests from Denmark [25].