Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term, while domestic sugar prices are predicted to show an oscillating trend in the near future [9][10]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to remain on the sidelines for arbitrage and sell put options [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part 1: Data Analysis - Futures Market: On January 6, 2026, SR09 closed at 5,275 with a gain of 6 (0.11%), SR01 at 5,285 with a gain of 7 (0.13%), and SR05 at 5,259 with a gain of 2 (0.04%). The trading volumes of SR09, SR01, and SR05 were 12,920, 681, and 187,904 respectively, with changes of 3766, -742, and 51798. The open interests were 72,898, 10,501, and 427,408 respectively, with changes of 1342, -681, and 4843 [3]. - Spot Market: The spot prices of sugar in different locations on January 6, 2026, were as follows: 5380 in Liuzhou, 5200 in Kunming, 5650 in Wuhan, 5350 in Nanning, 0 in Bayuquan, 5545 in Rizhao, and 5790 in Xi'an. The price changes were 10 in Liuzhou, 0 in Kunming, 0 in Wuhan, 20 in Nanning, 0 in Bayuquan, 0 in Rizhao, and 0 in Xi'an. The corresponding basis values were 121, -59, 391, 91, and 286, 531 [3]. - Inter - month Spread: The spreads of SR05 - SR01, SR09 - SR05, and SR09 - SR01 were -26, 16, and -10 respectively, with changes of -5, 4, and -1 [3]. - Import Profit: For Brazilian imports, with an ICE主力 of 14.77, a premium of 0.04, and a freight of 32.75, the in - quota price was 3974, the out - of - quota price was 5046, the spread with Liuzhou was 334, the spread with Rizhao was 499, and the spread with the futures market was 239. For Thai imports, with an ICE主力 of 14.77, a premium of 0.89, and a freight of 18.00, the in - quota price was 4019, the out - of - quota price was 5105, the spread with Liuzhou was 275, the spread with Rizhao was 440, and the spread with the futures market was 180 [3]. Part 2: Market Outlook - Important Information: As of December 31, 2025, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season in Guangxi, 73 sugar mills had all started crushing, one less than the previous year. The cumulative sugar - cane crushing was 1623.03 million tons, a decrease of 525.15 million tons year - on - year; the output of blended sugar was 194.19 million tons, a decrease of 80.95 million tons; the sugar - production rate was 11.96%, a decrease of 0.85 percentage points; the cumulative sugar sales were 88.48 million tons, a decrease of 74.74 million tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 45.56%, a decrease of 13.76 percentage points. In December, the monthly sugar production in Guangxi was 180.8 million tons, a decrease of 43.1 million tons, and the monthly sugar sales were 79.54 million tons, a decrease of 55.18 million tons. The industrial inventory was 105.71 million tons, a decrease of 6.21 million tons [5]. - As of January 1, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, 26 sugar mills among the members of the Ukrainian Sugar Producers Association had started production, processing 1043 million tons of sugar beets and producing 157.4 million tons of sugar. The sugar - production rate of sugar beets in this season reached 15.19%, an increase of 1.13 percentage points compared to the previous season, and the sugar content of sugar beets was 17.63%, an increase of 0.88 percentage points year - on - year. Six sugar mills were still processing sugar beets in January, and the production of this season was expected to end before January 20, 2026 [6]. - On January 6, the spot prices of sugar in the main production areas were basically stable, and the overall trading volume was average [6]. - Logical Analysis: Internationally, Brazilian sugar cane is expected to gradually enter the end of the crushing season. The cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil is 3990.4 million tons, an increase of 54.3 million tons compared to the same period last year. As Brazilian sugar enters the end of the crushing season, the supply pressure will gradually ease, and the market's focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere, where most sugar production is in an increasing cycle. Although the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere is high, the actual realization may affect the futures price. In the short term, the US sugar price has technically bottomed out but lacks upward momentum, so it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [9]. - Domestically, the current sugar price is low, in the low - price range of previous years. After the previous unexpected decline, the short - covering market has been somewhat repaired. Secondly, the domestic sugar processing cost is relatively high, with most sugar mills in Guangxi having a cost of over 5400 yuan/ton, which provides some support for the futures price. Finally, the recent trend of the US sugar price on the external market shows signs of bottoming out, and the out - of - quota cost of importing Brazilian sugar is between 5000 - 5200 yuan/ton, which has an upward driving force for Zhengzhou sugar. However, considering that China is currently in the peak sugar - crushing season and there is still some sales pressure, and the global sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase, it is expected that there will be significant pressure on the sugar price near the upper oscillation platform. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate [9]. Part 3: Relevant Attachments The report includes multiple charts such as Guangxi's monthly inventory, Yunnan's monthly inventory, Guangxi's monthly production, Yunnan's monthly production, Liuzhou's spot sugar price, Liuzhou - Kunming spot sugar price spread, sugar's September basis, Zhengzhou sugar's 5 - 9 spread, etc., with data sources from Galaxy Futures and WIND [13][14][19].
白糖日报-20260106
Yin He Qi Huo·2026-01-06 13:49